MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0603
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
709 PM EDT SUN JUL 30 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST CO...SOUTHWEST KS...WESTERN OK...TX
PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 302310Z - 310410Z

SUMMARY...CONVECTION TRAINING ALONG SURFACE TROUGHS OVER AREAS
THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING COULD RESULT IN A FLASH FLOOD THREAT THROUGH THIS EVENING.

DISCUSSION...THE EXPERIMENTAL GOES-16 MID LEVEL WATER VAPOR
CHANNEL SHOWED A STRENGTHENING SHORT WAVE OVER NORTHEAST NM THIS
AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE... CONVECTION WAS FIRING ALONG
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST NM INTO SOUTHEAST
CO. THE CONVECTION WAS FIRING IN AN AXIS OF 1500-2000 J/KG OF
MLCAPE. 

THE BEST MOISTURE AXIS LIES FURTHER TO THE EAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST
KS (PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE 1.75 INCHES) WHERE CONVECTION
TAKING ADVANTAGE OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE IS PRODUCING HOURLY
RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 2.00 INCHES OVER STANTON COUNTY. AS
THE SHORT WAVE APPROACHES...THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS SOUTHEAST CO AND SOUTHWEST KS TOWARD
31/00Z.

THE CONVECTION LIKELY BECOMES ORIENTED ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST CO IN FAR SOUTHWEST KS AND THE
WESTERNMOST OK PANHANDLE AFTER 31/00Z. THE CONVECTION ALONG THE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO  TRACK ACROSS AREAS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY
RAINFALL LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING... ESPECIALLY
OVER SOUTHWEST KS. THIS IS BEST DEPICTED BY THE MOST RECENT HRRR
PERCENT OF SOIL SATURATION PRODUCT... INDICATING WET SOILS HERE.

THE MOST RECENT HRRR IS THE MOST BULLISH PIECE OF HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE OVER FAR SOUTHEAST CO AND SOUTHWEST KS...AS THE WEAKLY
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ALLOWS FOR BETTER VENTING OVER THE SURFACE
TROUGH. THAT SOLUTION PLACED LOCAL 2.00 TO 3.00 INCH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS HERE...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER SOUTHWEST KS.

THE CONVECTION IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE
TROUGH INTO THE WESTERNMOST OK PANHANDLE AND TX PANHANDLE...BUT
THIS MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL 31/00Z. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
TRAINING AND/OR BACKBUILDING ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH...AS MID
LEVEL WINDS SLACKEN ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH.
SLOWER CELL MOTIONS AND TRAINING COULD RESULT IN A FLASH FLOOD
THREAT DEVELOPING HERE MAINLY AFTER 31/00Z.

HAYES

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...BOU...DDC...GLD...LUB...OUN...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   39160116 38780021 38039977 35739996 34910009
            34830014 34520045 34440164 34440234 34820348
            35450397 36260429 37100455 38010400 38810275