MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0604
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1226 AM EDT MON JUL 31 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...E COLORADO...W KANSAS...NE NEW MEXICO...TX/OK
PANHANDLESRIGHT

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 310425Z - 310825Z

SUMMARY...ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES OVER AREAS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE PAST
36 HOURS COULD RESULT IN A FLASH FLOOD THREAT THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS.

DISCUSSION...THE EXPERIMENTAL GOES-16 INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATED
THE COLDEST CLOUDTOPS OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND
SOUTHWEST KANSAS NEAR A COMPACT MID-LEVEL VORTMAX.  ALTHOUGH
CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW SOME SIGNS OF DIMINISHING,
THERE IS STILL A MARGINAL THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING GIVEN SATURATED
GROUNDS OVER PARTS OF THIS REGION.  MUCAPES ARE ON THE ORDER OF
500 TO 1000 J/KG BASED ON THE LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS, WITH PWS
APPROACHING 1.75 INCHES.  MOISTURE FLUX AT 850MB CONTINUES EAST OF
THE VORTMAX WITH 15 TO 25 KNOTS OF INFLOW FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

THE LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE, INCLUDING THE HRRR AND ITS
EXPERIMENTAL VERSION, ARE INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY
AREAS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH 8Z THIS MORNING.  GIVEN
RECENT RADAR TRENDS, THESE TYPES OF AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE AND MAY
LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

HAMRICK

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...BOU...DDC...GLD...LUB...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   40050176 39940080 39430056 38730056 37730062
            35940071 34630139 34440328 35690382 36730388
            38160395 39380374 39990297