MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0607...CORRECTED
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
216 PM EDT MON JUL 31 2017

CORRECTED FOR TYPO IN SECOND TO LAST PARAGRAPH

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AZ INTO NM

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 311810Z - 010010Z

SUMMARY...SLOW STORM MOTIONS WITHIN ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MONSOONAL
MOISTURE WILL PROMOTE AN INCREASING FLASH FLOOD THREAT INTO THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2 IN/HR WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE STRONGER CORES.

DISCUSSION...12Z MORNING ANALYSIS REVEALED A 700-500 MB TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDING FROM CNTRL AZ INTO CNTRL NM...CAUGHT IN BETWEEN TWO
RIDGE AXES...CENTERED OVER NRN NV AND WEST TX AT 12Z. WHILE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS WAS WEAK GIVEN WEAK LOW-MID
LEVEL WIND SPEEDS...GPS SITE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE SHOWING
1 TO 2 TENTHS OF AN INCH HIGHER ACROSS PORTIONS OF NM COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY AT 17Z. CURRENT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES VARIED QUITE A
BIT FROM NEAR 1 INCH TO 1.4 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION. THE 12Z
SOUNDING FROM ABQ REVEALED A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 1.2
INCHES WITH NO LAYERS OF LOWERED RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FROM THE
SURFACE TO THE TROPOPAUSE AND 0-6 KM MEAN WIND OF 7 KT.

EXPERIMENTAL GOES 16 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE PAST HOUR
HAS SHOWN CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG AND WEST OF THE SRN
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE GIVING WAY TO TOWERING CUMULUS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SOLAR INSOLATION IN REGIONS OF CLEAR
SKIES WILL HELP TO INCREASE CAPE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
FORECAST VALUES BY THE RAP REACHING INTO THE 1000-2500 J/KG RANGE
BY 22Z. AN INCREASING COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WITH SLOW STORM
MOTIONS SHOULD BE EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z WITH RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2
IN/HR.

GIVEN PORTIONS OF ERN AZ INTO NWRN/CNTRL NM HAVE RECEIVED OVER 300
PERCENT OF NORMAL RAINFALL OVER THE PAST WEEK...THE ANOMALOUS
MOISTURE PRESENT AND SLOW FORECAST STORM MOTIONS LESS THAN 10
KT...SCATTERED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
DURING THE AFTERNOON TODAY. WEAK BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 20 KT OR
LESS SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL STORM ORGANIZATION EXCEPT PERHAPS ACROSS
N-CNTRL/E-CNTRL NM BY EVENING WHERE INCREASING SHEAR AND WEAK ELY
UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAY HELP ENHANCE STORM
ORGANIZATION/LONGEVITY A BIT MORE COMPARED TO WEST OF THE DIVIDE.

OTTO

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...CBRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   36300672 36290590 35960520 35060489 33890489
            32570547 32420633 32600829 33210924 33661028
            34301085 35091076 35421042 35640958 35780860
            36100734