MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0610
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
746 PM EDT MON JUL 31 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN NM AND THE TX PANHANDLE...

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 312345Z - 010400Z

SUMMARY...CONVECTION TRAINING OVER AREAS WITH WET SOILS FROM
ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE WEEKEND COULD RESULT IN A FLASH
FLOOD THREAT THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING.

DISCUSSION...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FIRE ACROSS EASTERN NM AND
THE NEARBY TX PANHANDLE IN AN AXIS OF 1500 J/KG MLCAPE EXTENDING
FROM NORTHEAST NM INTO THE BIG BEND REGION OF TX. A 15 KNOT LOW
LEVEL EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW IS TRANSPORTING 1.50 TO 1.75 INCH
PRECIPITABLE WATER AIR INTO EASTERN NM... AND THE CONVECTION
FEEDING ON THE DEEPENING MOISTURE IS PRODUCING HOURLY RAINFALL
RATES OF 1.50 INCHES (PER THE KAMA RADAR) OVER QUAY AND CURRY
COUNTIES IN FAR EASTERN NM. 

AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE (OR MCV) TRACKS SOUTH ACROSS THE PANHANDLE OF
TX...IT WILL SHIFT THE MID LEVEL FLOW TO MORE NORTHERLY...
ALLOWING THE CONVECTION TO TRACK ALONG THE  AXIS OF INSTABILITY
FROM FAR EASTERN NM AND THE TX PANHANDLE TOWARD THE NORTHERN BIG
BEND LATER THIS EVENING. THIS SHIFT ALLOWS THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW TO
BECOME MORE EFFECTIVE IN TRANSPORTING DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE TRACK
OF THE CONVECTION.

THE MOST RECENT RAP INDICATES THAT THE PROPAGATION VECTORS BECOME
BETTER ALIGNED WITH THE RELATIVELY WEAK 850-300 MB MEAN
WIND...WHICH WOULD PROMOTE TRAINING ALONG THE TX/NM BORDER. THE
MOST RECENT HRRR SHOWED A RIBBON OF LOCAL 2.00 TO 4.00 INCHES OF
RAINFALL WITH THE CONVECTION THAT TRACKS ACROSS EASTERN NM INTO
THE NORTHERN BIG BEND AREA. ONE AND THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE IN PORTIONS OF THIS AREA ARE AS LOW AS 1.00 TO 1.50
INCHES...AND THE RAINFALL COULD BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE FLASH
FLOODING IN AREAS WITH WET SOILS FROM PREVIOUS ROUNDS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL THIS WEEKEND.

FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE...CIRCULATION
AROUND A LOW LEVEL CENTER COULD RESULT IN ENOUGH CONVERGENCE TO
SUPPORT CONVECTION WITH HEAVY RAINFALL HERE. AS WAS THE CASE
FURTHER SOUTH...ONE AND THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IN
PORTIONS OF THIS AREA ARE AS LOW AS 1.00 TO 1.50 INCHES. FLASH
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE HERE AS WELL. THE THREAT COULD CONTINUE PAST
01/04Z...AS THE INSTABILITY MAY NOT YET HAVE BEEN COMPLETELY
CONSUMED ACROSS THE REGION.

HAYES

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...EPZ...LUB...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   36060184 35930109 35380054 35370052 33000172
            31710299 31480356 31640413 32180478 33460514
            34990450