MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0627
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1040 AM EDT SAT AUG 05 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST KS....SOUTHWEST MO

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 051440Z - 052000Z

SUMMARY...AN ADDITIONAL 2-4" THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON ARE POSSIBLE
WITH SOME TRAINING/BACKBUILDING OF CELLS.  THIS MAY POSE ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS.

DISCUSSION...MATURE WARM ADVECTION MCS CONTINUES TO PERSIST ACROSS
SE KS. EXPERIMENTAL GOES-16 WV SUITE DEPICTS A COMPACT S/W OVER
THE SAND HILLS OF NEB DROPPING SOUTHEAST WITH A SEWARD EXTENDING
DEFORMATION ZONE/SUBTLE WAVE IN NE KS. THIS IS GENERALLY
COINCIDENT WITH INTERFACE OF THE 7-5H ENTRANCE TO CONFLUENT FLOW
FROM EXITING LARGER SCALE TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES EXTENDING
THROUGH THE OH AND LOWER MO VALLEY.  VWP AT TOP DENOTES THE 7H
TROF HAS PASSES RECENTLY WITH TROF ARCHING BACK ACROSS CENTRAL KS
DENOTED BY MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK.

SOUTHEAST OF THE INTERSECTION...STRONG WAA PERSISTS WITH 850MB VWP
ACROSS N OK/SE KS SUPPORTING 40-45KTS OF INFLOW SUPPORTING STRONG
MST CONVERGENCE ALONG THE MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE AND
SUPPORTING CONTINUED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.  THIS IS DENOTED WELL
IN GOES-16 .6 AND 10.3UM VIS/IR CHANNELS WITH NW TO SE LINE OF
OVERSHOOTING TOPS FROM JUST NW OF EMP TOWARD JLN ATTM.  VIS LOOP
ALSO DENOTES UPSTREAM/BACKBUILDING TCU/CBS ACROSS SE KS THAT FEED
INTO THE ONGOING CONVECTIVE LINE AS WELL LOCALLY ENHANCING
RAINFALL RATES.  CLOUD BARING FLOW IS GENERALLY NW TO SE
SUPPORTING A TRAINING PROFILE ACROSS SE KS...ALLOWING FOR
INCREASED TOTALS.

AS CONVECTION REACHES THE KS-MO/OK-AR BORDER THE CONFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT SUPPORTS EASTWARD TURNING ALLOWIN FOR ADDITIONAL
CONVERGENCE/MERGERS TO OCCUR LIKELY AROUND EXT. SE KS/JLN/SGF
VICINITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  

LIMITING FACTORS WILL BE EXPECTED SLOW REDUCTION OF LLJ ALLOWING
FOR REDUCED BACKBUILDING AND EASTWARD PROPAGATION THROUGH 16-18Z
BUT ALSO THE MOISTURE LOCATION THROUGH THE DEPTH.  NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL KS/OK...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES ARE
REDUCED TO UPPER 50S AND SO FIRST BOUTS OF HVY RAIN MUST BE
EXHAUSTED TO MOISTEN THE LOWER PROFILE...MUCH OF THIS HAS BEEN
ACCOMPLISHED ACROSS SE KS...BUT THE CONDITIONS WORSEN IN SE MO. 
GIVEN EAST OF THE 7-5H TROF IS ALSO QUITE DRY ALOFT...RAIN RATES
WILL BE 1.5"/HR INITIALLY BEFORE THEY STEADILY INCREASED TO AROUND
2" AFTER THE LOWER PROFILE IS WETTED.  AS SUCH TOTALS OF 2-4" ARE
EXPECTED (MAINLY IN SE KS) WITH 1-3" IN SW MO...AS SUGGESTED BY
THE 00Z ARW WHICH HAS BEEN PERFORMING WELL SO FAR; AS WELL AS
RECENT HRRR/HRRRX SOLUTIONS.

OF NOTE: NW-SE REAR INFLOW JET ACROSS NE KS/NW MO WILL ACTIVATE
AND SUPPORT TRAINING BUT THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF GUIDANCE
VARIATION IN TIMING AND NORTH/SOUTH LOCATION WITH LIMITED
OBSERVATIONS TO HELP LOCK DOWN A MORE PRECISE AXIS AT THIS TIME.
AN ADDITIONAL MPD WILL BE FORTHCOMING WHEN OBSERVATIONS START TO
DETERMINE MORE PRECISE TIMING/LOCATION.   

GALLINA

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...SGF...TOP...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   38999627 38959534 38599435 38049340 37559283
            37199254 36679275 36579400 36999491 37269575
            37609657 38179683 38509666