MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0630
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
406 PM EDT SAT AUG 05 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR EASTERN KS...WEST-CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MO

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 052005Z - 060015Z

SUMMARY...REDEVELOPING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER
AREAS THAT HAVE ALL READY SEEN HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING GIVEN THE LOCALLY
SATURATED SOIL CONDITIONS.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY IS SHOWING A REDEVELOPMENT
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF FAR EASTERN KS AND
WEST-CENTRAL MO ON THE HEELS OF THE EARLIER MCS THAT DROVE
EAST-SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY ACROSS EASTERN KS AND
DOWN INTO SOUTHWEST MO. THE LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A
WELL-DEFINED COLD POOL OVER THE REGION...BUT GOES-WV IMAGERY IS
SHOWING THE APPROACH OF AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE WHICH IS ENHANCING
THE SOUTHWESTERLY WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER THE COLD POOL...LEADING
TO ISENTROPIC ASCENT. THIS COUPLED WITH A WELL-DEFINED NOSE OF
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE DYNAMICS SHOULD
RESULT IN CONVECTION BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED ONCE AGAIN WITH
LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES OVER AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY
LOCALLY SEEN SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN EARLIER IN THE DAY.

THE LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE SHOWS AND ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES
LOCALLY THROUGH 00Z. LATER ON IN THE EVENING A MUCH STRONGER
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH AN
ENHANCED MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TRANSPORT REGIME THAT WILL FAVOR A
MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE THREAT. MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED LATER IN THE EVENING. SO THIS WILL BE A MULTI-ROUND
EVENT THAT IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN MORE FLASH FLOODING WITH SOME
OF IT LIKELY TO BE SIGNIFICANT GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...EAX...LSX...LZK...SGF...TOP...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   39569489 39269318 38519179 37859127 36789139
            36469274 36529390 36799415 37529428 38509525
            39259533