MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0639...CORRECTED
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1220 AM EDT MON AUG 07 2017

CORRECTED FOR SECOND TO LAST LINE

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST CO & NORTHWEST KS

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 070417Z - 070717Z

SUMMARY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST CO AND
NORTHWEST KS COULD LEAD TO HOURLY RAIN RATES UP TO 1.5" WITH LOCAL
AMOUNTS UP TO 3" WHERE CELLS MERGE AND/OR MESOCYCLONES FORM.

DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MASSING ACROSS
NORTHEAST CO WITH HINTS OF NEW DEVELOPMENT SEEN ON RADAR ACROSS
NORTHWEST KS.  THIS IS OCCURRING EAST OF A MESOSCALE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE.  MU CAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG EXIST HERE, ALONG WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1-1.25".  WHILE INFLOW AT 850 HPA IS
ONLY 10 KTS, STORMS ARE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 KTS YIELDING 25 KTS
OF STORM BASE INFLOW.  EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 30-40 KTS EXISTS
HERE.  A REPORT OF 1.11" IN 20 MINUTES AT AKRON WAS RELAYED BY THE
GOODLAND KS OFFICE FROM A COCORAHS REPORT.

THE GUIDANCE HAD A ROUGH BUT HIGHLY LOCALIZED SIGNAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AROUND 3" OVER THE NEXT 3-4 HOURS.  THE CONVECTIVE
EVOLUTION IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO FORWARD PROPAGATION TO THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST AND A MORE LIMITED CONVECTIVE PROFILE ALONG THE
DIRECTION OF MOTION WITH TIME DUE TO THE LIMITED INSTABILITY NEAR
THE STORMS AND HIGHER VALUES TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST.  CELL
MERGERS ARE EXPECTED AND MESOCYCLONE FORMATION IS POSSIBLE WITH
THE DEGREE OF BULK SHEAR AVAILABLE.  HOURLY RAIN TOTALS SHOULD MAX
OUT AROUND 1.5".  WITH RELATIVELY LOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IN THE
AREA, THIS COULD LEAD TO ISSUES.

ROTH

ATTN...WFO...BOU...DDC...GLD...LBF...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   40990262 40030082 38680021 38120182 38980375
            39800422 40230396 40350303