MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0649
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
512 PM EDT MON AUG 07 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN CO...CENTRAL/EASTERN NM

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 072110Z - 080310Z

SUMMARY...HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING GRADUALLY EAST
OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN CO AND EAST-CENTRAL NM WILL
PRODUCE CONCERNS FOR SOME FLASH FLOODING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

DISCUSSION...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING WITH THE AID OF
LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW AND ROBUST DIURNAL HEATING WHICH IS
CONTRIBUTING TO A NOTABLE N/S ORIENTED INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN NM. AN ADDITIONAL FEATURE OF NOTE IS A
CONVECTIVELY INDUCED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER EASTERN NM AND INTO
WEST TX WHICH MAY ACT AS A SEPARATE FORCING MECHANISM FOR MORE
CONCENTRATED CONVECTION THIS EVENING AS THE CELLS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF EAST-CENTRAL NM...INCLUDING THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
RANGE...ADVANCE OFF TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.

PWATS ARE ON THE ORDER OF 1.25 TO 1.40 INCHES ACROSS THE MPD
THREAT AREA WHICH IS A TAD ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1.5 INCHES/HR AND ESPECIALLY WITH SUCH
COLD CONVECTIVE TOPS AND UPSLOPE FLOW AS NOTED OVER THE LAST HOUR.
STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS THROUGH MID-EVENING OF AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND THIS IS A LITTLE WETTER THAN THE
HIRES MODEL CONSENSUS. SOME RUNOFF AND/OR FLASH FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE AND ESPECIALLY WITH THE RATHER SLOW CELL MOTIONS.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...MAF...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   38760445 37550346 34900308 32850355 32250411
            32140493 32300542 32650565 33240591 34220599
            34890597 35530581 36730558 37920590 38730529