MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0657
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
629 PM EDT TUE AUG 08 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST CO...NORTHEAST NM...PORTIONS OF THE
OK/TX PANHANDLES

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 082225Z - 090415Z

SUMMARY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED THROUGH THE LATE-AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST CO AND NORTHEAST NM. SOME FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE EXPECTATION OF SOME CELL-MERGERS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL RATES APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES/HR.

DISCUSSION...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OFF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN CO AND NORTHERN NM...INCLUDING THE
SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE...WITH A PROPAGATION OFF TO THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST OUT INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. THE CONVECTION WILL BE
ENCOUNTERING A MODESTLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF
1000 TO 1500 J/KG AND A FAIR DEGREE OF SHEAR WITH EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR VALUES OF 30 TO 40 KTS WHICH WILL LIKELY FOSTER
SUSTAINABLE/ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS AND UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH
POTENTIAL.

MEANWHILE...PWATS ACROSS THE REGION ARE GENERALLY 1.1 TO 1.3
INCHES AND INDICATIVE OF A RELATIVELY MOIST ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. THE AREA OVER SOUTHEAST CO AND NORTHEAST NM IS
CURRENTLY SEEING A GENERAL SOUTH/SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND PATTERN
WITH THE FLOW BACKING AND BECOMING MORE CONVERGENT IN PARTICULAR
OVER SOUTHEAST CO. THIS IS WHERE FORCING WILL TEND TO BE MAXIMIZED
IN THE SHORT-TERM AND
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...MORE ROBUST MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS OF
CONVECTION AND A FEW SUPERCELLS WILL EVOLVE AND SHOULD GRADUALLY
BEGIN COMBINING TO FORM A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS BY MID EVENING.

HIRES MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS AS MUCH AS 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN
ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST CO/NORTHEAST NM AND THEN DOWN ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN OK/TX PANHANDLES. SOME CELL-MERGER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED WITH THE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION THIS
EVENING...SO IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS
COULD MATERIALIZE AND ALSO WITH HEAVIER RAINFALL RATES OF AS MUCH
AS 1.5 INCHES/HR. SOME FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...BOU...DDC...GLD...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   38890388 38750268 37340199 35760230 34940290
            34600349 34500407 34590473 34960526 35740530
            36560497 37070491 37920486 38530458