MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0667
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
443 AM EDT FRI AUG 11 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST KS...NORTHEAST OK...SOUTHWEST
MO...NORTHWEST AR

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 110840Z - 111240Z

SUMMARY...SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND
GRADUALLY SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST THIS MORNING. SOME HEAVY RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED AND AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING.

DISCUSSION...A RATHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK IS CROSSING
THE LOWER MO VALLEY THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT GRADUALLY SETTLES
SOUTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

A RELATIVELY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS POOLED ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE FRONT AND OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS THERE HAVE BEEN
POCKETS OF MAINLY ELEVATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHEAST KS
AND EAST OVER INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MO. CONVECTION HAS ALSO
MORE RECENTLY BE EXPANDING OVER NORTHEAST OK AHEAD OF THE STRONG
MCS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL OK. SOME LOCALLY ENHANCED WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS IS ACTUALLY ALLOWING FOR SOME GREATER
CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION...AND IT IS BEING AIDED BY FAVORABLE
RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION JET DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PROXIMITY
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK.

EXPECT POCKETS OF AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4+ INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS AS CONVECTION TENDS TO ORGANIZE AND EXPAND A
BIT MORE IN COVERAGE. SOME FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND
ESPECIALLY WITH LOCALLY WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...LSX...LZK...OUN...SGF...TOP...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   38829181 38549110 37819084 36789159 36389214
            36109277 35869368 35869440 35999529 36289606
            36849682 37149719 37449718 37789665 38079580
            38259500 38799343