MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0669
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
751 PM EDT FRI AUG 11 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN NM...N TX PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY

VALID 112350Z - 120530Z

SUMMARY...DEEP CYCLONE LIFTING NORTHEAST WITH DEEP AVAILABLE
MOISTURE WITH WARM SECTOR COMPLEX DEVELOPING INTO MCS.

DISCUSSION...EXPERIMENTAL GOES-16 WV SUITE ALONG WITH CIRA LAYERED
TPW LOOPS DEPICT A DEEP CYCLONE CURRENTLY OVER SE AZ WITH WELL
DEFINED CONVEYOR BELT STRUCTURES.  WARM CONVEYOR BELT IS DIRECTED
FROM N CHIHUAHUA THROUGH WESTERN NM WITH SOLID ISENTROPIC ASCENT
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL NM WRAPPING BACK INTO THE TROWAL ALCROSS THE
MOGOLLON RIM TOWARD THE CENTRAL AZ VALLEY.  ACROSS EASTERN
NM...WELL DEFINED SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS HIGHLIGHTED WITH TCU/CBS
FROM SOUTH OF CDS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE TX PANHANDLE
TOWARD SE CO.  AN EASTWARD EXTENDING BRANCH/BOUNDARY CAN BE SEEN
IN THE WIND FIELD/VIS FROM S OF AMA TO TCC TO BETWEEN LVS/CQC.  AS
SUCH THERE ARE TWO AREAS OF GREATER CONCERN WITHIN THE LARGER
BOUNDARY OF THE MCS: WESTERN CENTRAL NM (NEAR THE WARM
CONVEYOR/TROWAL INTERFACE) AND E/NE NM IN THE WARM SECTOR.

WARM SECTOR (E/NE NM): STRENGTHENING UPSLOPE FLOW SUPPORTS TDS IN
THE MID-60S AND INSTABILITY PER RAP ANALYSIS REACHING 2000+ J/KG
MLCAPES AND PROMOTED AN ENVIRONMENT FOR DEEP CONVECTION.  STRONG
SFC MST CONVERGENCE ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY FROM TCC TO
CQC HAS SPARKED SCATTERED DEEP CBS ACROSS E NM AT THIS POINT. 
ALONG WITH DIFFLUENT PATTERN WITHIN UPPER LEVEL LEVEL RIDGING AND
STRENGTHENING SELY LLJ FROM 15KTS TO 35KTS BY 06Z WILL FURTHER
SERVE FOR INCREASING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
LIKELIHOOD OF CLUSTERS MERGING INTO A LARGER MCS TOWARD 02-4Z.

GIVEN MOISTURE AVAILABILITY/FLUX RAIN RATES WILL BE INCREASING
FROM 1.25 TO 2"/HR THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOUR AS WELL AS THE
COMPLEX FOCUSES LIKELY ACROSS E GUADELOUPE/QUAY INTO W AMA CWA. 
GIVEN A MODERATELY LARGE AREA HAS ALREADY SEEN 300-600% OF NORMAL
RAINFALL OVER THE LAST 7+ DAYS PER AHPS...EVEN LOW END ESTIMATES
OF 2-3" TOTALS (PER RECENT HI-RES CAMS) ARE LIKELY TO POSE FLASH
FLOODING CONCERNS AND EXTREME EXAMPLES SUCH AS 12Z NMMB/ARW OF 4+
ARE QUITE CONCERNING.

WESTERN/CENTRAL NM:  WARM CONVEYOR HAS CONSOLIDATED THE MOISTURE
STREAM TO SUPPORT TPWS UP TO 1.5" ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
WITH NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE VALLEY SUPPORTING 1000 J/KG MLCAPES
AS WELL.  PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL FEED CONVECTION ROLLING
OFF HIGHER TERRAIN OF CIBOLA/NE CATRON COUNTIES. 
ADDITIONALLY...WV LOOP SHOWS STRONG MID-EVEL CONVERGENCE AT THE
MEAN TROF ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENT TO POSE SOME
TRAINING CORRIDORS MAY SET UP FROM CATRON TO CENTRAL SANTA FE
COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT 3-6HRS FURTHER SUPPORTING POTENTIAL FOR
MORE LOCALIZED/ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING THAN FURTHER EAST.  WHILE
THE HRRR IS LESS FAVORABLE EAST...IT MAY HAVE A HANDLE ON CURRENT
EVOLUTION FOR WESTERN NM.

GALLINA

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...LUB...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...CBRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   36620448 36490257 36000155 34650146 34630313
            34400498 33630837 34410883 35480693 36200606