MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0692
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
914 PM EDT MON AUG 14 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...TX PANHANDLE... EXT NORTHEAST NM

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 150115Z - 150615Z

SUMMARY...PROGRESSIVE MCS WITH STRONG DOWNPOURS TO TRACK THROUGH
SIMILAR AREAS AFFECTED YESTERDAY POSING POSSIBLE LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOOD CONDITIONS.

DISCUSSION...EXPERIMENTAL GOES-16 10.3UM IR LOOP SHOWS STRONG
UPDRAFT CLUSTER ACROSS SE UNION COUNTY NM SHIFTING SE INTO THE TX
PANHANDLE WITH NEW OVERSHOOTING TOPS BREAKING OUT ALONG THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN FLANKS AS THE CLUSTER GROWS UPSCALE. 
VWP FROM AMA SHOWS EXCELLENT DIRECTED LOW LEVEL INFLOW OF 20+ KTS
PUMPING 2000+ J/KG OF MLCAPE AND MODEST MOISTURE WITH TPWS OF
1.25" AVAILABLE PER 00Z AMA SOUNDING.

THIS SETUP WILL HELP FORWARD PROPAGATION TO THE SE WITH SEVERE
WIND THREAT MAINLY.  ALONG WITH IT HOWEVER SUFFICIENT HEAVY
RAINFALL IN A QUICK BURST WITH 1-2" TOTALS POSSIBLE.  AMA WSR-88D
ALSO SUGGESTS A SWATH OF 2-3" TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE ALONG THE
INTERFACE OF THE BOOKEND VORTICE/MESO LOW ALONG THE PRECURSORY
OUTFLOW WHERE TRAINING MAY OCCUR FOR 30-60 MINUTES...CURRENTLY
DIRECTED TOWARD HARTLEY TO POTTER COUNTY.  GREATEST CONTRIBUTING
FACTOR TO POTENTIAL FF IS SATURATED SOILS FROM LAST NIGHT'S MCS
THAT PRODUCED 2-4" FROM AMA THROUGH PALO DURO CANYON REGION WITH
OTHER POCKETS OF SATURATING TOTALS ACROSS THE CAP ROCK REGION.  

GALLINA

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...LUB...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   36390299 35660120 34500051 33820135 33950281
            34760340 35830353