MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0694
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
505 AM EDT TUE AUG 15 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...WEST-CENTRAL TO NORTHWEST TX

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 150900Z - 151300Z

SUMMARY...ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME
REPEATING OF CELLS WILL FOSTER SOME POSSIBLE RUNOFF AND/OR FLASH
FLOODING CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

DISCUSSION...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCING EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL/NORTHERN NM IS FOSTERING ADDITIONAL ELEVATED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS AREAS OF WEST TX. THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE IS
ENHANCING THE WARM ADVECTION PATTERN OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
AND THE CONVECTION OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS HAS BEEN FORMING
WITHIN AN ELEVATED INSTABILITY GRADIENT AS EARLIER CONVECTION HAD
LAID DOWN A RATHER WELL-DEFINED COLD POOL. CLOUD TOPS OVER THE
LAST HOUR HAVE COOLED FURTHER...AND SO THE CONVECTION HAS GROWING
FURTHER IN ORGANIZATION/STRENGTH.

THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE ADVANCING OFF TO
THE EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT WILL BE TENDING TO FALL
OVER AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY SEEN SOME HEAVY RAINFALL GOING BACK
TO LAST EVENING...AND ALSO THE NIGHT BEFORE. THE RELATIVELY WET
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AS A RESULT WILL ALLOW FOR ANY ADDITIONAL
CONVECTIVE RAINFALL TO POTENTIALLY RESULT IN SOME RUNOFF AND
POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING THIS MORNING.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AND ESPECIALLY WITH THE THREAT OF REPEATING CELL
ACTIVITY. THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN GENERALLY AFTER
12Z...AS PER THE LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE...BUT THE CONVECTIVE TRENDS
WILL BE MONITORED.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...AMA...LUB...OUN...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   34870196 34710083 34389958 33969903 33519930
            33349996 33320099 33520210 33920294 34680291