MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0702
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
211 PM EDT WED AUG 16 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...SE KANSAS...E OKLAHOMA...W MISSOURI...NW ARKANSAS

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 161811Z - 170011Z

SUMMARY...MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THIS REGION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. 
SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL EXHIBIT TRAINING POTENTIAL AND COULD
DELIVER A QUICK 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME
FLOODING ISSUES.

DISCUSSION...RADAR IMAGERY IS SHOWING MULTIPLE BANDS OF INTENSE
STORMS WITH RAINFALL RATES ON THE ORDER OF 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES PER
HOUR WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS OVER SOUTHWEST MISSOURI.  THE LATEST
EXPERIMENTAL GOES 16 IR IMAGERY IS INDICATING EXPANDING COLD CLOUD
TOPS WITH THIS CONVECTION, AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. 

PWS ACROSS THE REGION ARE IN THE 1.7 TO 2.2 INCH RANGE PER THE
LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS, ALONG WITH 1500 TO 2500 J/KG OF MLCAPE. 
SOME LINGERING CIN OVER EASTERN KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA IS CURRENTLY
KEEPING THE CONVECTION IN CHECK THERE, BUT MUCH MORE IN THE WAY OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY LATER THIS AFTERNOON ONCE THE CIN
ERODES AND THE SHORTWAVE IMPULSE TO THE WEST APPROACHES.  THE
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IS AVERAGING 30 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

THE LATEST HI-RES MODELS APPEAR TO BE UNDERDONE WITH THE ONGOING
CONVECTION OVER WESTERN MISSOURI EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER,
THEY ARE ALL INDICATING FUTURE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION FARTHER TO THE
SOUTHWEST WITH AMOUNTS OF 2 TO LOCALLY 4 INCHES POSSIBLE BY 00Z. 
PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA ARE SLIGHTLY MORE VULNERABLE TO
FLOODING GIVEN LOWER FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES.  SOME RUNOFF
AND/OR FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS ARE POSSIBLE GOING INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS.

HAMRICK

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...LSX...LZK...OUN...SGF...TOP...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   38979449 38829278 37759225 36769263 35879334
            35069450 34499631 34709814 35939832 37219732
            38419577