MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0723
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
615 AM EDT FRI AUG 25 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN OK

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 251014Z - 251500Z

SUMMARY...TRAINING OF SLOW MOVING CORES OF HEAVY RAIN WILL
CONTINUE A FLASH FLOOD THREAT OVER THE NEXT 3-5 HOURS IN PORTIONS
OF WRN OK. ONE OR TWO LOCATIONS COULD SEE 3-5 INCHES.

DISCUSSION...KFDR REFLECTIVITY AT 1000Z SHOWED SOMEWHAT
DISORGANIZED BUT SLOW MOVING/TRAINING CORES OF HEAVY RAIN OVER
PORTIONS OF WRN OK ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40. EXPERIMENTAL GOES 16
INFRARED IMAGERY HAS SHOWN AN EXPANSION OF COLDER CLOUD TOPS OVER
THE PAST 1-2 HOURS AND DUAL POL RAINFALL ESTIMATES HAVE BEEN 2-3
IN/HR IN GREER COUNTY IN SWRN OK. THE AREA OF RAINFALL IS
OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE SRN END OF A MID-UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ADVANCING INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. 06Z SPECIAL SOUNDINGS FROM
AMA AND FWD SHOWED A TIGHT GRADIENT IN PRECIPITABLE WATER WITH
1.14 INCHES AT AMA AND 2.03 INCHES AT FWD...WITH WARM ADVECTION
VIA 15-20 KT 850 MB FLOW AIDING IN MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO THE
NORTH. INDIVIDUAL CELLS HAVE BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE NNE AND NNW AT
ROUGHLY 10 KT WITH THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL INFLOW AIDING IN
TRAINING IN A FEW AREAS.

CAPE IS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL AT 500-1000 J/KG MAXIMUM MUCAPE AS SEEN
IN THE LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE OVER SWRN OK BUT WEAK RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION JET SUPPORT IS AIDING IN ASCENT. THE ADDITION OF
SURFACE HEATING WITH SUNRISE AND THE DEPARTURE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED JET STREAK SHOULD HELP TO DISRUPT WHAT CELL
ORGANIZATION IS PRESENT. GIVEN RELATIVELY WEAK
FORCING...ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS BUT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED TO ONE OR TWO LOCATIONS
THROUGH 15Z. A COUPLE OF LOCATIONS COULD SEE 3-5 INCHES BY 15Z.

OTTO

ATTN...WFO...AMA...LUB...OUN...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...

LAT...LON   36589964 36349867 35459818 34859814 34319910
            34570037 35980011