MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0740
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1001 PM EDT SAT AUG 26 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL FL

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 270200Z - 270700Z

SUMMARY...SLOW MOVING CONVECTION IN A HIGH MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT
COULD RESULT IN A FLASH FLOOD THREAT INTO EARLY MORNING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL FL.

DISCUSSION...CONVECTION IS FIRING IN THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW
SOUTH OF A SURFACE LOW NEAR KOCF. THE CONVECTION IS FORMING IN AN
AXIS OF 1500-2500 J/KG OF MLCAPE (THE 00Z TBW SHOWED SBCAPE VALUES
IN EXCESS OF 4500 J/KG)...AND THE GOES-16 CLEAN IR LOOP SHOWED
COOLING TOPS WITH THIS ACTIVITY...AS CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE
REACHED -75 CELSIUS .

THE CONVECTION IS FORMING IN AN AXIS OF THE 2.50 INCH PRECIPITABLE
WATER AIR. THE KTBW RADAR SHOWED HOURLY RAINFALL RATES NEAR 2.50
INCHES OVER WESTERN MANATEE COUNTY.... WHERE HEAVY RAIN FELL
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CELLS  HAVE BEEN MOVING SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD...GENERALLY FOLLOWING FOLLOWING THE PROPAGATION VECTORS
TOWARD THE WEST CENTRAL FL COAST.

MOST OF THE AVAILABLE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SHOWED LOCAL 3.00
TO 5.00 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN KSRQ AND KFMY.  GIVEN THE
SLOW MOTION OF THE CELLS...AS WELL AS THE DEEP MOISTURE IN
PLACE...THESE AMOUNTS SEEM PLAUSIBLE.

FLASH FLOODING IS CONSIDERED POSSIBLE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS
OVER PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL FL...ESPECIALLY IF THE LOCAL 3.00 TO
5.00 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS AFFECT URBAN LOCATIONS.

HAYES

ATTN...WFO...MFL...TBW...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   27818237 27478208 26958186 26908181 26718169
            26458158 26128144 25878146 25778159 26118193
            26508220 26918245 27518272