MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0755
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
530 PM EDT MON AUG 28 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FL

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 282130Z - 290130Z

SUMMARY...BANDS OF CONVECTION TRAINING ACROSS AREAS OF WEST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FL THAT HAS RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE
PAST FEW DAYS COULD POSE A FLASH FLOOD THREAT INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.

DISCUSSION...THE REGIONAL RADAR SHOWED AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE OVER PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL FL DURING THE PAST TWO
HOURS. THE CONVECTION IS FORMING IN AN AXIS OF 1500-2000 J/KG
MLCAPE AREA...AND THE GOES-16 CLEAN IR LOOP SHOWED BURSTS OF
COLDER CLOUD TOPS SOUTH OF A SURFACE TROUGH.

THE CONVECTION IS FORMING/MOVING IN A 2.50 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER
AIRMASS...AND THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW HAS ORGANIZED THE
CONVECTION INTO WEST-EAST BANDS EXTENDING BACK INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THE KTBW RADAR HAS SHOWN HOURLY RAINFALL RATES NEAR 2.00
INCHES NORTH OF THE TAMPA METRO AREA...WITH SIMILAR RAINFALL RATES
IN BANDS JUST OFFSHORE.

THE MOST RECENT RAP SUGGESTS THAT THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
REMAIN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION BANDS ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FL INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE MOST
RECENT HRRR SHOWED LOCAL 3.00 TO 5.00 INCHES RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WHERE BANDING OCCURS...AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE 12Z WRF
ARW...WITH THE GREATEST FLASH FLOOD THREAT EXTENDING THROUGH ABOUT
01Z OR SO.

THE SARASOTA-FORT MYERS CORRIDOR HAS RECEIVED BETWEEN 5.00 AND
8.00 INCHES OF RAINFALL SINCE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...LEAVING SOME
AREAS WITH WET SOILS. THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL COULD INITIATE FLASH
FLOODING... ESPECIALLY IN THE URBAN AREAS ALONG THE INTERSTATE 75
CORRIDOR.

HAYES

ATTN...WFO...MFL...TBW...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   28098244 28098225 27808176 27308154 26748145
            26328156 26308186 26598220 27908289