MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0856
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
937 PM EDT MON OCT 02 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...SW NEBRASKA...NW KANSAS

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 030136Z - 030530Z

SUMMARY...LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE EVENING...PARTICULARLY WITH TRAINING CONVECTION NEAR A
HIGH-PRECIPITATION SUPERCELL IN THE I-70 CORRIDOR OF NW KANSAS.

DISCUSSION...A DOMINANT SUPERCELL CONTINUES ITS PROGRESSION TO THE
NORTHEAST ACROSS KANSAS...AND AS OF 01Z WAS IN NORTHERN GOVE
COUNTY NEAR INTERSTATE 70. KGLD DUAL POL RAIN RATES AND MRMS RAIN
RATES WITH THIS SUPERCELL MAY BE A BIT HAIL CONTAMINATED BUT
AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 1 IN/HR STILL SEEM LIKELY. THE STORM
CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EAST NEAR A SURFACE BOUNDARY AND ON THE NOSE
OF AN INTENSIFYING LOW-LEVEL JET. WITH STRONG MOISTURE FLUX INTO
THE AREA AND AMPLE INSTABILITY IN THE INFLOW REGION...THIS MAY
ALLOW THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE STORM TO CONTINUE
PROGRESSING TO THE NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE...NEW UPDRAFTS HAVE
CONTINUED TO FORM ON THE UPSHEAR FLANK OF THE COLD POOL...AND ARE
CREATING A TRAINING EFFECT. THIS MAY INCREASE THE FLASH FLOOD
THREAT TEMPORARILY OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS IN THE
GOVE-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM COUNTY REGION.

ADDITIONAL TRAINING WAS OCCURRING WITH ELEVATED BANDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. THESE ARE
A LITTLE TO THE NORTHWEST AND WEST OF THE CORRIDOR OF HIGHEST
PWATS...AND THUS MAY BE A LITTLE LESS EFFICIENT WITH RAINFALL
PRODUCTION. AS THE ELEVATED PORTION OF THE FRONT (925-700MB)
BEGINS TO SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING...HI-RES MODELS
DO SHOW THAT THESE BANDS OF CONVECTION MAY SHIFT BACK INTO
NORTHWEST KANSAS...AND PERHAPS INTO AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY
RECEIVED RAINFALL. ALTHOUGH THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT MAY BE LOWER IN
THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE OUTLINED DISCUSSION AREA AS COMPARED
TO THE AREA NEAR THE SUPERCELL...LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING CANNOT
BE RULED OUT.

LAMERS

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GID...GLD...LBF...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   41360029 41299983 40789999 40369942 40109858
            39939786 39479837 39149914 38859981 38690003
            38360079 38340129 38510151 38760138 39150103
            39390097 39590117 39710157 40260194 40830164
            41180092