MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0859
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1053 PM EDT TUE OCT 03 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN NM...

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 040252Z - 040707Z

SUMMARY...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PERCOLATE ACROSS EASTERN NM
WITHIN A MOIST/UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME. IN THE PRESENCE OF SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS...MANY UPDRAFTS COULD DUMP HEAVY RAINFALL
CAPABLE OF FLASH FLOODING BEFORE ADVANCING DOWNSTREAM TOWARD THE
NM/TX BORDER.

DISCUSSION...THE 02Z FRONTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTED A BOUNDARY
EXTENDING GENERALLY ALONG I-40 ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE AND BACK
INTO NORTHEASTERN NM. TO THE SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...VAP WIND
PROFILER DATA SHOWED AMPLE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW HELPING PUMP
GULF MOISTURE BACK TOWARD THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. IT DOES SEEM
THE RAP OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS IS OVERDONE WITH THE STRENGTH OF THIS
LOW-LEVEL JET...OFTEN 5 TO 10 KNOTS TOO STRONG RELATIVE TO
OBSERVATIONS. HOWEVER...CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL DATA SHOWS
SUBSTANTIAL INSTABILTY OVER THE MPD AREA...MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000
TO 2000 J/KG PER THE 02Z RAP OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. MANY OF THE
ERUPTING CONVECTIVE CELLS HAVE BEEN SLOW MOVING WHILE LIKELY BEING
HAIL PRODUCERS BASED ON DERIVED DUAL-POL PRODUCTS VIA THE KFDX
CANNON AFB RADAR. EXPECT HEAVY DOWNPOURS TO AUGMENT THE FLASH
FLOOD THREAT...ESPECIALLY UP TOWARD NORTHEASTERN NM WHERE
CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN WETTER THE PAST WEEK OR SO.

ONE OF THE LIMITING FACTORS IS EVIDENT ON THE EXPERIMENTAL GOES-16
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH A DEARTH OF MOISTURE IN THE MID/UPPER
LEVELS. THIS OBSERVATION IS ALSO CONFIRMED BY LOCAL 00Z RAOBS.
HOWEVER...ECHO TOPS WITHIN THE ACTIVE CONVECTION HAVE STILL BEEN
ABLE TO PUNCH INTO THE UPPER TROPOSPHERE WITH VALUES OVER 40 KFT.
OVERALL...THERE IS A FAIRLY STRONG HIGH-RESOLUTION MODEL CONSENSUS
FAVORING 1 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL TOTALS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
GENERALLY STRADDLING I-40 ACROSS EASTERN NM TOWARD THE TX BORDER.
THIS SEEMS CONSISTENT WITH THE ONGOING RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS.
EXPECT A THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...ESPECIALLY WHILE THE CELLS ARE SLOWER MOVING IN NATURE.

RUBIN-OSTER

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   36860420 36790346 36100316 34700322 33420390
            33050456 33210519 34570498 36310480