MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0866
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
839 PM EDT THU OCT 05 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/EASTERN NM...NORTHWEST TX PANHANDLE...

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY

VALID 060045Z - 060600Z

SUMMARY...FLASH FLOODING THREAT REMAINS AS MATURE LINEAR MCS
MARCHES EASTWARD ACROSS NM INTO BETTER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. 
ADDITIONAL 1-2" OF RAIN OVER ALREADY SATURATED SOILS IN NE NM/TX
PANHANDLE.

DISCUSSION...GOES-16 10.3 CLEAR IR LOOP DEPICTS MATURE COOLING
CLOUD TOPPED COMPLEX ACROSS CENTRAL NM EXTENDING TOWARD
WANING/WARMING CELLS CROSSING OUT OF NE NM INTO THE NORTHERN TX
PANHANDLE.  RAP ANALYSIS AND FORECAST SUGGEST A POOL OF REMAINING
INSTABILITY WITH UP TO 2000 J/KG MUCAPES OVER EAST CENTRAL NM FED
BY SLIGHTLY INCREASING SELY LOW LEVEL INFLOW.  LLJ IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AROUND 04Z AND VEER SLIGHTLY TOWARD MORE SOUTHERLY
REDUCING FORWARD PROPAGATION OF THE COMPLEX ACROSS EASTERN
NM...ALLOWING FOR INCREASED DURATION/CELL MERGERS.  INCREASING
TPWS UP TO 1.7" AND INSTABILITY SUGGEST RATES OF 2"/HR REMAIN
POSSIBLE WITH SWATHS OF 1-3" TOTALS LIKELY THROUGH 06Z WITH
ISOLATED EMBEDDED TOTALS UP TO 4" NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITY CONTINUING THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT.  THIS AREA HAS BEEN
LESS AFFECTED BY THE RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL OVER RECENT NIGHTS BUT
GENERALLY HYDROPHOBIC/HARD-PAN SOIL CONDITIONS LEAD TO LOW FFG
VALUES ACROSS THE AREA AND A GOOD PROBABILITY FOR FLASH FLOODING.

WARMER/REDUCED MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE CAP
ROCK/PERMIAN BASIN IN TX HELPING TO STABILIZE THAT AREA AND LIMIT
FORWARD PROGRESSION OF CELLS INTO TX.  HOWEVER...AXIS OF RETURN
FLOW RESIDES OVER THE THE N TX & OK PANHANDLES ALLOWING FOR
INCREASED MOISTURE BUT ALSO SOME SLIGHTLY STEEPER LAPSE RATES (PER
00Z AMA SOUNDING) AND SOME LINGERING MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY UP TO
500-750 J/KG.  THIS SHOULD STILL SUPPORT LINGERING MODEST SHOWERS
UP TO 1"/HR WITH SOME POSSIBLE EMBEDDED SMALL CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS
THROUGH 06Z.  WHILE NOT EXTREME THESE RATES MAY EXACERBATE ONGOING
FLOODING ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE FADING SLOWLY AROUND 06-08Z.

GALLINA

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...LUB...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   36330088 35840098 35340169 34860246 34360300
            33880349 33490423 33400478 33460594 33620714
            34520635 35510460 35890329 36210221