MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0867
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
104 AM EDT FRI OCT 06 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AND SERN NEW MEXICO...FAR WEST TEXAS

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 060510Z - 061000Z

SUMMARY...SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
PRIMARILY PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO DURING
THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH FLASH FLOODING
POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF TRAINING CELLS.

DISCUSSION...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BLOSSOM ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO...GENERALLY IN CONTRAST WITH THE MAJORITY OF
HI-RES MODELS WHICH SHOW LIMITED ACTIVITY AND LOW QPF THROUGH 12Z
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. THE INCOMING 00Z NSSL-WRF SEEMS TO HAVE
THE BEST HANDLE ON THE ONGOING PRIMARY BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM
NEAR CLOVIS NM TO NEAR ROSWELL NM AND IS MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF
THE ONGOING DEVELOPMENT TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THAT NEAR A SURFACE
MESOLOW AND ACCOMPANYING TROUGH THAT EXTENDS TO THE EAST.
EXPERIMENTAL GOES-16 IR SATELLITE LOOPS AND HOLLOMAN AFB RADAR
BOTH SHOW THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE PRIMARY BAND OF CONVECTION IS PROPAGATING SOUTH AND
PASSED THE ALAMOGORDO NM AREA AROUND 04Z. AS THIS BOUNDARY PUSHES
INTO A REGION OF HIGHER INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE...AN EXISTING
MESOSCALE BOUNDARY...AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW (PER KEPZ VWP
IN THE LOWEST 1KM AGL)...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAY INCREASE AND
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR AN ORGANIZED HEAVY RAIN THREAT.

THEREFORE...THE GREATEST CHANCE OF FLASH FLOODING MAY EXIST NEAR
THE ONGOING PRIMARY BAND OF CONVECTION (WHERE FLASH FLOODING HAS
ALREADY BEEN REPORTED IN SOME LOCATIONS)...AND NEAR THE COLLISION
OF MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES (ROUGHLY FROM NEAR DEMING NM TO NEAR
ARTESIA NM). HOURLY RAIN RATES COULD BE AS HIGH AS 1.5-2.0 IN/HR
IF TRAINING OF THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS CAN OCCUR FOR MORE
EXTENDED PERIODS OF TIME.

LAMERS

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...EPZ...LUB...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   35010196 34620174 33970239 33450268 32570339
            32140419 31580464 31030489 30780518 30870567
            31280614 31650660 31630746 31710799 31820820
            32230816 32710760 33180644 33710520 34390398
            34730308 34860254