MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0945
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
257 AM EST WED DEC 20 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN MS...NORTHERN AL...NORTHERN GA...UPSTATE
OF SC

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 200756Z - 201456Z

SUMMARY...AREAS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION CONTINUE TO PUSH WEST TO
EAST ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF THE WEST TO EAST ORIENTED
STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS NORTHERN MS---NORTHERN
AL---NORTHERN GA INTO THE UPSTATE OF SC.  PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF
1 TO 3 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER TOTALS POSSIBLE INTO EARLY
MORNING...RESULTING IN ISOLATE RUNOFF ISSUES.

DISCUSSION...A WELL DEFINED WEST TO EAST ORIENTED STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES TO BE THE FOCUS FOR ORGANIZED OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION
AHEAD OF THE STRONG MID TO UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT FALL EJECTING
EASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY THIS
MORNING.  THE COMBINATION OF STRONG MOIST SOUTH SOUTHWEST H85 FLOW
INTO THIS FRONT AND STRONG UPPER DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE STRONG
HEIGHT FALLS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION INTO
EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY.  THE LATEST
SIMULATED RADARS FROM THE HRRR---ARW---NMMB AND NSSL WRF HAVE A
FAIRLY GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT AREA OF HEAVY PRECIP.  ALL SHOW
THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE STATIONARY FRONT INTO THIS MORNING.  HOURLY PRECIP TOTALS
OF 1" AND THREE HOURLY TOTALS OF 3"+ POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF
TRAINING.  THESE AMOUNTS MAY EXCEED 3 TO 6 HOUR FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE WITH ISOLATED RUNOFF ISSUES POSSIBLE.

ORAVEC

ATTN...WFO...BMX...CAE...FFC...GSP...HUN...JAN...MEG...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   34858618 34798486 34798312 34708147 34518133
            33958164 33728330 33498491 33228722 33148783
            32818958 32809034 33109068 33769061 34428959
            34638864