MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0048
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1017 PM EST SUN FEB 25 2018

AREAS AFFECTED...LA...CENTRAL MS...CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AL

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 260316Z - 260916Z

SUMMARY...TRAINING HEAVY RAINS WITH FLASH FLOODING CONTINUE TO
OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL LA INTO CENTRAL MS.  THESE RAINS
ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE FURTHER NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

DISCUSSION...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE
THOUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE NOW MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO SUSTAIN PWS OF
1.25 TO 1.75 INCHES ALONG AND SOUTH OF A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM THE TN VALLEY TO THE WESTERN
GULF COAST.  THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY, ALONG WITH
SUSTAINED LIFT PROVIDED ALONG THE RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
UPPER JET, IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT TRAINING CONVECTION INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
HIGHLIGHTED REGION.  RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE SHOWN A TREND
NORTH WITH THEIR AXES OF HEAVIER AMOUNTS, SHOWING WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE OF 1-2 INCHES, WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER TOTALS FOR THE 6-HR
PERIOD ENDING 9Z.  THIS INCLUDES AREAS WHERE THE MOST RECENT 3-HR
FLASH GUIDANCE VALUES ARE 2-3 INCHES -- SUGGESTING RAPID RUNOFFS
MAY OCCUR WHERE HEAVY RAINS MATERIALIZE.

PEREIRA

ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...JAN...LCH...LIX...MEG...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   34658695 33508603 32578805 31958893 31268979
            30459110 29999238 30139303 30859290 31849242
            32609171 33619049 34278905