MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0073
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1212 AM EDT TUE MAR 27 2018

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN OK...NWRN AR...SRN MO

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 270408Z - 271000Z

SUMMARY...A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTED AXIS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED FROM NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS
AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI THROUGH 10Z. RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2 IN/HR AND
6 HOUR TOTALS OF 2-4 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...REGIONAL RADAR BETWEEN 02-04Z SHOWED A CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH EASTERN OKLAHOMA. SOME
CELL TRAINING HAS BEEN OBSERVED WITHIN THIS CLUSTER...KINX RADAR
DEPICTING RAIN RATES OF 1-2 IN/HR WEST OF TULSA AND NORTH OF I-40
AS OF 0330Z. THE CELLS WERE LARGELY ELEVATED AND ESTIMATED
INSTABILITY FROM THE SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE SHOWED MUCAPE WAS LESS
THAN 500 J/KG FROM THE LOWER PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS...BUT
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WERE ANOMALOUSLY HIGH. FOR
EXAMPLE...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM THE 00Z KSGF SOUNDING WAS
JUST ABOVE THE CLIMATOLOGICAL DAILY MAX FOR LATE MARCH.

VAD WIND DATA FROM KSRX SHOWED 850 MB WINDS HAVE INCREASED FROM 30
TO 40 KT SINCE 0245Z AND RECENT RAP FORECASTS SHOWED 850 MB WINDS
INCREASING INTO THE 40-55 KT RANGE ALONG THE MISSOURI/ARKANSAS
BORDER BY 07Z. THESE WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASED CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE 850 MB FRONT...WITH FLOW UNIDIRECTIONAL FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST...PROMOTING TRAINING. WHILE INSTABILITY SHOULD STAY
FAIRLY MINIMAL...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.3 TO 1.5+ INCHES
SHOULD ALLOW FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2 IN/HR WHERE
CELL TRAINING OCCURS. THROUGH 10Z...MAXIMUM RAINFALL OF 2-4 INCHES
IS EXPECTED BETWEEN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHERN
MISSOURI...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING GIVEN THE RUGGED
TERRAIN OF THE OZARKS.

OTTO

ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...OUN...PAH...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   38459111 38409040 37979013 37639031 37059106
            36529216 35769394 35169528 34899619 35259689
            36239647 37059492 37619369 38079262