MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0075
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1141 AM EDT TUE MAR 27 2018

AREAS AFFECTED...WEST-CENTRAL TO NORTHERN AR...SOUTHEAST MO

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 271540Z - 272030Z

SUMMARY...HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH
SOME CONCERNS FOR LOCALLY TRAINING CELLS AND POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
FLOODING.

DISCUSSION...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHWEST AR CONTINUES TO FOCUS AN AREA OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AN AXIS FROM WEST-CENTRAL AR NORTHEAST INTO
SOUTHERN MO. THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF SOME
TRAINING CELLS OVER MADISON AND NEWTON COUNTIES...WITH DUAL-POL
RADAR ESTIMATES OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES/HR. THE CONVECTION IS BEING
AIDED BY RATHER STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND WITHIN A RATHER
DIFFLUENT FLOW REGIME ALOFT.

OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...EXPECT THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO
CONTINUE TO LIFT UP ALONG A COLD FRONT AND THIS WILL ALLOW THE
HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT TO SHIFT FARTHER OFF TO THE EAST. ONE
CONCERN IS THAT THE CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TO OUTRUN SOME OF THE
BETTER INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY...BUT AT
LEAST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO BE RATHER
STEADY STATE IN TERMS OF ORGANIZATION AND INTENSITY BEFORE SOME
WEAKENING OCCURS.

GIVEN THE LOCALIZED THREAT OF TRAINING CELLS...THERE WILL CONTINUE
TO BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. RAINFALL RATES OF
GENERALLY UP TO 1.5 INCHES/HR...AND STORM TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES
CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...PAH...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...

LAT...LON   36979004 36608963 35949012 35259177 34859350
            35029418 35419425 35859396 36309314 36779163