MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0107
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1030 PM EDT SUN APR 15 2018

AREAS AFFECTED...WV...WESTERN VA

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 160230Z - 160600Z

SUMMARY...LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS IN PLACES THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL EARLIER.

DISCUSSION...REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED THE BACK EDGE OF THE HEAVY
RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY
MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN WV INTO FAR WESTERN VA. IN THESE
AREAS...1.00 TO 2.00 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAVE ALREADY
OCCURRED...PRODUCING WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT BATCH
OF HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

POCKETS OF 100/250 J/KG OF MUCAPE REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS WV LATE
THIS EVENING...AND A 30 TO 40 KNOT LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUES TO SUPPLY 1.50 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER TO MUCH OF
EASTERN WV AND FAR WESTERN VA. THE RESULTING LOW TOPPED CONVECTION
IS RESULTING IN HOURLY RAINFALL RATES AROUND 0.50 INCHES OVER
EASTERN WV. AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...THE LOW
TOPPED CONVECTION COULD PRODUCE LOCAL HOURLY RAINFALL RATES NEAR
AN INCH OVER PLACES LIKE HIGHLAND...PENDLETON AND RANDOLPH
COUNTIES THROUGH 16/06Z.

THE MOST RECENT HRRR SHOWED LOCAL 1.00/2.00 INCHES OF RAINFALL
OVER EASTERN WV AND FAR WESTERN VA THROUGH 16/06Z. WHILE THE
MOISTURE AND FORCING ARE IN PLACE...THE GENERAL LACK OF
INSTABILITY WOULD SUGGEST THAT ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2.00
INCHES MIGHT BE SPOTTY AT BEST.

THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL...IN PLACES THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY EVENING...COULD RESULT IN AN INCREASED
THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING. SINCE THE CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED TO
BE WIDESPREAD...ONLY LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED.
THEREFORE...FLASH FLOODING IS ONLY CONSIDERED POSSIBLE THROUGH
ABOUT 16/06Z.

HAYES

ATTN...WFO...LWX...PBZ...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...MARFC...OHRFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   39737970 39697935 39567899 39337874 38777893
            37737958 37128071 37248150 38008148 39218087
            39718033