MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0117
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1035 PM EDT TUE MAY 01 2018

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN KS/SERN NE/NWRN MO

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY

VALID 020230Z - 020800Z

SUMMARY...TRAINING HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE AN ADDITIONAL
3-6 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF NRN KS THROUGH 08Z. FLASH FLOODING
APPEARS LIKELY WITHIN A RELATIVELY NARROW AXIS BETWEEN CNK AND STJ.

DISCUSSION...02Z RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED AN WEST-EAST AXIS OF
TRAINING SUPERCELLS...ROUGHLY 30 MILES NORTH OF I-70 IN NRN KS.
WHILE KUEX AND KTWX ESTIMATED RAINFALL RATES OF 2-3 IN/HR MAY BE
TOO HIGH DUE TO HAIL CONTAMINATION...CNK REPORTED 1.64 INCHES IN 1
HOUR ENDING AT 01Z WITHIN A 1.2 TO 1.3 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER
ENVIRONMENT PER RECENT GPS MEASUREMENTS. AREA VAD WIND PLOTS
SHOWED 850 MB WINDS FROM THE SOUTH AT 50-60 KT...FEEDING
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY ATOP AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LOCATED JUST SOUTH
OF THE ONGOING STORMS.  STORM MOTIONS HAVE OFF TOWARD THE ENE AT
ROUGHLY 30 KT WITH REPEATING CELLS ALLOWING FOR VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL ALONG A RELATIVELY NARROW AXIS.

SHORT TERM RAP FORECASTS INDICATE VEERING OF LOW LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH 06Z WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE ORIGINATION POINT OF CELL
DEVELOPMENT TO SLIDE EAST...AND THIS HAS PERHAPS ALREADY BEGUN AS
AN EASTWARD SHIFT HAS BEEN NOTED OVER THE PAST HOUR FROM THE
ELLIS/RUSSELL COUNTY BORDER TO THE RUSSEL/OSBORNE COUNTY BORDER. A
CONTINUED ENEWD SHIFT IS ANTICIPATED BUT WITH CONTINUED TRAINING
ENE OF THE ORIGINATION POINT WITH POTENTIAL FOR AN ADDITIONAL 3-6
INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH 08Z. THE HRRR AND EXPERIMENTAL HRRR HAVE
BEEN HANDLING THE ONGOING CONVECTION THE BEST SO FAR AND SHOW
AGREEMENT WITH THE WANING FLASH FLOOD THREAT BEYOND ABOUT 07Z AS
REMNANT CONVECTION SLIDES EASTWARD INTO NRN MISSOURI WHILE
BECOMING MORE FORWARD PROPAGATING.

OTTO

ATTN...WFO...EAX...GID...ICT...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   40509424 40149383 39579450 39279662 39049860
            39379897 39759835 40239696 40429561