MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0138
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
120 AM EDT MON MAY 14 2018

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST KS, SOUTHEAST NE, & VICINITY

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 140519Z - 140819Z

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO ALIGN NORTHEAST OF A
FRONTAL WAVE.  HOURLY RAIN TOTALS TO 2" WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS TO 3"
ARE EXPECTED.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE STARTING TO SHOW TRAINING CHARACTER
ACROSS NORTHEAST KS AND SOUTHEAST NE NORTHEAST OF A FRONTAL WAVE
AND NEAR A NOW OBSCURED SHORTWAVE PREVIOUSLY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE NEAR 1.5" PER GPS DATA. 
WINDS AT 850 ARE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT 30 KTS PER VAD WIND PROFILES. 
THE STORMS ARE MOVING THROUGH AN ENVIRONMENT WITH 2000-3000 J/KG
OF MU CAPE AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 25 KTS PER SPC
MESOANALYSES.

HRRR GUIDANCE ONCE HAD AN INDICATION OF THIS DEVELOPMENT, BUT LOST
IT IN RECENT RUNS.  HOURLY RAIN TOTALS TO 2" WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS TO
3" ARE ANTICIPATED.  CELL TRAINING AND MERGERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
THE MAIN HEAVY RAIN THREAT.  SHOULD THE TRAINING BAND LENGTHEN ANY
FURTHER, HIGHER TOTALS WOULD BE POSSIBLE.  THE MESOSCALE GUIDANCE
WITH CONVECTION IN THIS AREA SUGGESTS A HORIZON OF 08Z FOR ISSUES,
NEAR THE TIME WHEN 850 HPA WINDS VEER, SO CHOSE A THREE HOUR
WINDOW.

ROTH

ATTN...WFO...EAX...GID...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   41109599 40989506 40249504 39349653 39039774
            40309740