MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0145
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
634 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2018

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE TO WEST TEXAS PLAINS

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 142234Z - 150145Z

SUMMARY...PERSISTENT THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING WITH RAIN RATES OF 1-2
IN/HR POSSIBLE.  THIS MAY LEAD TO AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING THIS
EVENING.

DISCUSSION...A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OVER THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE
AND ADJACENT AREAS TO THE SOUTH HAVE MAINTAINED THEIR STRENGTHEN
AND BEEN GROWING MORE NUMEROUS AND MORE INTENSE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.  RADAR HAS SHOWN MULTIPLE CELL MERGERS ALREADY ALONG
WITH SLOW MOVING CELLS OVER SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA. 
RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESSIVE OF AN INCH PER HOUR CAN OCCUR HERE AS
AN AIRMASS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1.25 INCHES AND
1.5 INCHES ARE ADVECTED NORTHWARD TOWRDS A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTH AND AN QUASI STATIONARY DRY LINE TO ITS WEST. 

THE MORE CONTINUOUS AREA OF REFLECTIVITY NEAR OR ABOVE 50 DBZ
SHOULD LEAD TO HEAVY RAINFALL FOR MORE THAN AN HOUR...
PARTICULARLY NEAR CONFLUENCE OF THE TWO BOUNDARIES.  IN
ADDITION...ISOLATED CELLS BETWEEN SNK AND SJT HAVE BEEN VERY SLOW
MOVING AND ARE LIKELY TO INTERACT AND MERGE WITH ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE CONVECTION BEGINS
TO WANE AS SUGGESTED BY SEVERAL OF THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS.

THEREFORE...A NEAR-TERM FLASH FLOOD THREAT APPEARS TO EXIST BASED
ON RECENT RADAR TRENDS ALONE.

BANN

ATTN...WFO...AMA...LUB...MAF...OUN...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   35320024 34150013 32209946 31389939 31229976
            31630038 32380052 33240072 33970143 34200151