MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0179
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
620 PM EDT MON MAY 21 2018
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWEST WEST VIRGINIA...NORTHERN NORT
CAROLINA...FAR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 212219Z - 220100Z
SUMMARY...AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL RATES OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
NORTH CAROLINA AND FAR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA/SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF WITH THE LOSS
OF INSOLATION.
DISCUSSION...THE LATEST GOES-16 CLEAN IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUING TO BUBBLE UP OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTH CAROLINA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA IN A
REGION THAT HAD A RECEIVED SOME CLEARING EARLIER IN THE DAY. LOW
LEVEL WINDS WERE LIGHT ON EITHER SIDE OF A QUASI STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING EAST TO WEST ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA BEFORE
CURVING TOWARDS THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST UPON ENCOUNTERING THE
APPALACHIANS. THE RAP AND HRRR PAINT THIS AREA AS HAVING THE
BETTER CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TO PERSIST INTO THE EVENING
GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOW LEVELS.
GREATEST RAINFALL RATES ARE ARE LIKELY TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO
2 INCHES LOCALLY THROUGH 22/00Z.
EXPECT SOME LOCALLY ENHANCED RUNOFF PROBLEMS AND FLASH FLOODING
FROM SLOW MOVING CONVECTION WITH SUCH RAINFALL RATES.
BANN
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...GSP...JKL...MHX...MRX...RAH...RLX...RNK...
ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...OHRFC...SERFC...
LAT...LON 38798081 38388043 37618073 37118059 36947999
36697834 36467747 36157697 35817770 35677958
35988080 36568159 36698242 36628308 36888348
37688290 38478208 38658163
Last Updated: 620 PM EDT MON MAY 21 2018