MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0191
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
738 PM EDT WED MAY 23 2018
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST NM...TX AND OK PANHANDLES...SOUTHWEST
KS
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 232335Z - 240435Z
SUMMARY...MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY INFLOW INTO A WEAK
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTED BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
TRAINING CONVECTION, PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND
POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
DISCUSSION...SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL INFLOW CONTINUES
TO SUPPORT DEEPENING MOISTURE ALONG A NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
ORIENTED BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SOUTHWEST KANSAS BACK INTO
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS PWS
INCREASING TO AT OR ABOVE 1.25 INCHES FROM THE FAR NORTHERN TX
PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THESE VALUES ARE APPROXIMATELY
1.5-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THEIR CLIMATOLOGICAL MEANS. THIS
MOISTURE INTERACTING WITH MID LEVEL ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF
TRAINING CONVECTION, RAISING THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY
ACCUMULATIONS AND FLASH FLOODING. LATEST RADAR ESTIMATES SHOW
SOME CELLS CONTINUING TO PRODUCE RAINFALL RATES OF 1.5-2 IN/HR AS
THEY MOVE SLOWLY EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN TX
PANHANDLE INTO THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. AS THIS CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY, CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER REDEVELOPMENT BACK TO THE
WEST, WITH GOES IMAGERY CONTINUING SHOW COOLING CLOUD TOPS BACK
ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE BOUNDARY
OVER NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO. CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN WANE ACROSS
THE REGION AS WINDS BEGIN TO VEER MORE TO WEST IN THE WAKE OF
SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING.
PEREIRA
ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...DDC...ICT...OUN...PUB...
ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...
LAT...LON 38229812 36919823 36290022 35250233 34410439
34640550 35480570 36680491 37020305 37520039
37939917