MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0196
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
900 AM EDT FRI MAY 25 2018

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL MO

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 251255Z - 251555Z

SUMMARY...CONVECTION DEVELOPING ON THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW SOUTHWEST
OF A WEAKENING MCS COULD RESULT IN A FLASH FLOOD THREAT THIS
MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL MO.

DISCUSSION...THE GOES-16 CLEAR IR LOOP SHOWED A WEAKENING MCS NEAR
KGLY...AS CLOUD TOPS SLOWLY WARM. SOUTHWEST OF THE MCS...A 25 KNOT
LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TO FEED 1.75 INCH PRECIPITABLE
WATER AIR ACROSS SOUTHWEST MO (PER THE MOST RECENT RAP
ANALYSIS)...AND THE MOISTURE AND RESIDUAL INSTABILITY (MUCAPE
VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG LOCATED OVER EASTERN KS AND FAR WESTERN MO)
ARE FEEDING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ON THE SOUTHWEST FLANK OF THE
MCS.

WITHIN THE DEEP MOISTURE PLUME...THE KSGF RADAR HAS INDICATED
HOURLY RAINFALL RATES NEARING 2.00 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF
BATES/SINCLAIR AND VERNON COUNTIES. THE MOST RECENT RAP SHOWED
THAT WHILE THE LARGER SCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST... PROPAGATION VECTORS ALMOST OPPOSE THE
850-300 MB MEAN WIND...INDICATING THAT BACKBUILDING AND SHORT TERM
TRAINING COULD CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL MO
INTO THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS.

THE POTENTIAL FOR HOURLY RAINFALL RATES BETWEEN 1.50 AND 2.00
INCHES ARE EXPECTED BEFORE THE POOL OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS
EXHAUSTED LATER THIS MORNING. MOST OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
SHOWED THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL 2.00/3.00 INCHES OF RAINFALL
WHERE CONVECTION TRAINING AND BACKBUILDS. THESE AMOUNTS ARE CLOSE
TO THE THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE...SO FLASH FLOODING IS
CONSIDERED POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. 

HAYES

ATTN...WFO...EAX...LSX...SGF...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   39069350 38889225 37289227 36879399 37099432
            38119406