MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0212
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
805 AM EDT MON MAY 28 2018

AREAS AFFECTED......FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO SOUTHERN AL AND SOUTHWEST
GA...

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 281205Z - 281805Z

SUMMARY...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE AS BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN ROTATE
ONSHORE AS SUBTROPICAL STORM ALBERT MOVES TOWARDS THE COAST.

DISCUSSION...A FEW BANDS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS OUTSIDE THE CORE OF
SUBTROPICAL STORM ALBERTO ARE ROTATING ONSHORE ACROSS THE FL
PANHANDLE. FL PANHANDLE RADARS SHOW INNER CORE CONVECTION POISED
JUST OFF THE COAST. THE NORTH NORTHWEST MOTION SHOULD BRING THE
INNER CORE RAIN BANDS OF ALBERTO ONSHORE FROM THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON AS THE CENTER CONTINUES MOVING TOWARDS THE COAST.

2-3 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED NEAR THE AREA WHERE THE CENTER
APPROACHES THE COAST...WITH 1-2 INCHES ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FL
PANHANDLE TO TO ADJACENT BORDERING AREA OF FAR SOUTHEAST AL AND
FAR SOUTHWEST GA.  HEAVY SHOWERS ARE SUPPORTED BY WELL DEFINED
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND COUPLED UPPER DIVERGENCE AND LOWER
CONVERGENCE MAXIMA.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE ESTIMATED BY
THE RAP TO INCREASE TO NEAR 2.5 INCHES NEAR WHERE THE CENTER
APPROACHES THE COAST. 

THE CONUS NEST NAM AND 06Z GFS INDICATES 2-3 INCHES OF RAIN NEAR
WHERE THE CENTER IS CLOSEST TO THE FL PANHANDLE COAST FROM 12-18Z.


THE RISK IS SHOWN AS POSSIBLE OWING TO HIGH FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
OF 4-5 INCHES IN 6 HOURS.

PETERSEN

ATTN...WFO...MOB...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   31118542 30978450 30458338 29858312 29318333
            28848395 28778575 29008648 29858689 30418686
            30938644