MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0224
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
839 AM EDT TUE MAY 29 2018

AREAS AFFECTED......CENTRAL TO NORTHERN ALABAMA...

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 291239Z - 291839Z

SUMMARY...HEAVY SHOWERS AND PERIODS OF RAIN WILL PRODUCE 1-3
INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ALABAMA THROUGH 18Z...

RADAR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOW SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION ALBERTO
MOVING NORTH NORTHWEST ACROSS ALABAMA.  SURFACE DATA INDICATES 1-3
INCHES OF RAIN FELL IN THE 6 HOURS BETWEEN 06-12Z AND SIMILAR
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN 12-18Z. FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...
AN AREA OF RAIN CONTINUES DUE TO THE COMBINED IMPACTS OF WELL
DEFINED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE FLUXES
ROTATING AROUND THE CIRCULATION OF THE DEPRESSION...ALONG WITH A
WELL DEFINED 850-700 MB DEFORMATION ZONE ON THE NORTHERN/WESTERN
FLANKS OF THE CIRCULATION.

WITH THESE FEATURES FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS WITH 850-700 MB THETA-E ADVECTION MAXIMIZING ALONG THE PATH
OF THE CIRCULATION AS IT MOVES NORTH NORTHWEST ACROSS
ALABAMA...THE RAINS ARE HIGHLY LIKELY TO PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL
AND THEN NORTHERN ALABAMA.

THE NAM/GFS/HIGH RES RAPID REFRESH MODELS AND THE HURRICANE
WRF/HMON TROPICAL  CYCLONE MODELS FORECAST AMOUNTS IN THE 1-3 INCH
RANGE AND CLUSTER FAIRLY WELL...WHICH IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE LONG
LASTING AND WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION.

PETERSEN   

ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...JAN...MEG...OHX...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   35118739 34988658 34718628 34398604 34028584
            33588583 33038603 32848627 32578700 32728758
            32988802 33618843 34208853 34658845 34988801