MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0242
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
143 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018

AREAS AFFECTED......CENTRAL TO EASTERN KY TO BORDERING SOUTHERN
WV/SOUTHWEST VA...

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 311742Z - 312242Z

SUMMARY...CLUSTERS OF HEAVY SHOWERS/STORMS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE
EAST ACROSS KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON.  MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS/STORMS CREATE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. TOTALS OF 2-4
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...KPAH KLVX AND KJKL RADARS SHOW CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS MOVING EAST ACROSS KENTUCKY.  DESPITE A PROGRESSIVE
LARGE CLUSTER MOVING EAST FROM WESTERN KY AND SOUTHERN
IL/IN...RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE OCCURRING. 
ADDITIONALLY...AREAS OF SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE FORMED EAST OF THE
LARGER CLUSTER IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN KY...SETTING UP THE
POSSIBILITY OF MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS.

SOUTH OF THE ONGOING ACTIVITY...A FAVORABLE AIRMASS HAS DEVELOPED
WITH GFS FORECAST 1.75 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER IN PLACE THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH OBSERVED SURFACE LOW-MID 70 DEWPOINTS.  THE
LOW LEVEL INFLOW HAS NEAR 2500 J/KG OF MIXED LAYER CAPE...WITH
OUTFLOWS PROVIDING WELL DEFINED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE...SO ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS ARE EXPECTED.

BRIEF PERIODS OF TRAINING AND/OR MORE THAN ONE ROUND OF SHOWERS
HAVE CREATED CONDITIONS WHERE PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TO EASTERN KY
WILL GET 2-4 INCHES OF RAIN IN  THIS AFTERNOON...CONTINUING TO THE
ADJACENT BORDER AREAS OF OH AND WV/SOUTHWEST VA. 
EASTERN KY HAS PATCHES OF FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE OF 1.5 INCHES IN 6
HOURS...SO FLOODING MAY OCCUR WHERE MORE THAN 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN
OCCURS.

THE WRF ARW AND ARW 2 HAVE JOINED THE 15-16Z HIGH RES RAPID
REFRESH AND EXPERIMENTAL HIGH RES RAPID REFRESH IN FORECASTING
AREAS OF 1-3 INCHES OF RAIN WITH MAXIMA TO 4 INCHES IN A FEW
LOCATIONS.

PETERSEN

ATTN...WFO...ILN...JKL...LMK...MRX...PAH...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...OHRFC...

LAT...LON   38658448 38288262 37648237 36908260 36678390
            36628581 37008690 38048698 38548615 38628501