MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0265
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
721 PM EDT SUN JUN 03 2018

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NM...FAR WEST TX

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 032320Z - 040320Z

SUMMARY...CONVECTION TRAINING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NM INTO FAR WEST
TX COULD POSE A FLASH FLOOD THREAT INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

DISCUSSION...REGIONAL RADARS ACROSS NM SHOWED BANDS OF CONVECTION
TRACKING EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NM IN THE MID
LEVEL FLOW. THE CONVECTION IS MOVING THROUGH AN AREA OF 1000 J/KG
OF MLCAPE...AND THE GOES-16 CLEAN IR LOOP SHOWED BURSTS OF COLD
CLOUD TOPS REACHING MINUS 70 DEGREE CELSIUS AT TIMES. THE
CONVECTIVE MODE FOR THESE STORMS IS HAIL/WIND...AS DRY AIR IN THE
MID LEVELS... AND AT THE BASE OF THE SOUNDING (INVERTED V) FAVOR
THESE CONVECTIVE TYPES.

HOWEVER...AS THE PROPAGATION VECTORS BECOME BETTER ALIGNED WITH
THE 850-300 MB MEAN WIND...SHORT TERM TRAINING BECOMES MORE
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NM. THE ABX RADAR
SHOWED HOURLY RAINFALL RATES BETWEEN 1.00/1.50 INCHES OVER
VALENCIA COUNTY NM...AND THIS VERY WELL MAY BE HAIL CONTAMINATED
(AS SUGGESTED BY THE HCA PRODUCT). HOWEVER...MESONET OBSERVATIONS
SOUTH OF ABQ SHOWED RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1.25/1.50
INCHES...WHICH COULD BE ATTRIBUTED TO SHORT TERM TRAINING SEEN ON
THE COMPOSITE RADAR.

THIS AREA HAS BEEN VERY DRY IN THE RECENT PAST...AND IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THE GROUND CONDITIONS COULD HARD ENOUGH TO ALLOW
MUCH OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL TO BE FUNNELED AS RUNOFF. THE MOST
RECENT HRRR/EXPERIMENTAL HRRR INDICATED LOCAL 1.50 INCH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OVER SOUTHERN INTO SOUTHEAST NM AFTER 04/00Z...AS THE LOW
LEVEL SOUTHEAST INFLOW INCREASES...AND THE COLUMN MOISTENS. FOR
NOW...FLASH FLOODING IS CONSIDERED POSSIBLE...MAINLY WHERE SHORT
TERM TRAINING OCCURS.

OVER FAR WEST TX...CELLS IN THE BIG BEND AREA HAVE BEEN SLOW
MOVING NEAR A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING ACROSS THE REGION. THE
STEERING FLOW HERE IS WEAK IN THE PRESENCE OF MID LEVEL
RIDGING...AND THE SLOW CELL MOTIONS NEAR THE FRONT COULD ALSO POSE
A FLASH FLOOD THREAT. AFTER 04/01Z...THE COVERAGE OF STORMS COULD
INCREASE AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY ACROSS THIS AREA... INCREASING
THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT.

HAYES

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...LUB...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   35480491 35380384 34790304 31330305 30080438
            31700657 31830663 33210664 34860615