MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0291
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
119 AM EDT MON JUN 11 2018

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL ILLINOIS...WEST-CENTRAL INDIANA

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 110517Z - 111000Z

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE REDEVELOPED ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS
IN THE WAKE OF ACTIVITY YESTERDAY. THESE STORMS MAY TRAIN IN A
WEST-EAST DIRECTION AND PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING. RAIN RATES OF 1-2
IN/HR AND RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2-4 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...CONVECTION BEGAN TO INITIATE AROUND 03Z IN THE WAKE
OF A PREVIOUS MCS...AND HAS SINCE GROWN AND BEGUN TO COALESCE INTO
LARGER CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS. GOES-16 IR SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUD TOPS
CONTINUING TO COOL...AND TOTAL LIGHTNING ACTIVITY HAS GENERALLY
INCREASED. THESE CLUSTERS OF STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO TRAIN ALONG
AND NORTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS...ON THE NOSE
OF BROAD LOW-LEVEL INFLOW AT 925-850MB. THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY
ELEVATED AT THAT INFLOW LAYER WITH VERY LIMITED SBCAPE NORTH OF
THE FRONT...BUT MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000-2000 J/KG. THIS SHOULD
BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW FOR MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS. RAP
ANALYZED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.8 INCHES SUGGEST THAT
THE ENVIRONMENT WILL ALSO BE SUPPORTIVE OF HEAVY RAIN RATES IF
TRAINING CAN OCCUR...UP TO AROUND 2 IN/HR. THIS SHOULD BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING GIVEN ONE HOUR FFG AROUND 1.5 INCHES.
HI-RES MODELS SHOW THIS ACTIVITY BEGINNING TO DIMINISH AROUND
09-10Z AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET BUILDS FURTHER EAST AND INTO A MORE
STABLE ENVIRONMENT.

LAMERS

ATTN...WFO...DVN...ILX...IND...LSX...

ATTN...RFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...

LAT...LON   40739093 40308865 40018723 39748635 39168648
            38888713 38918824 39078927 39499094 39969207
            40629212