MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0294
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
746 AM EDT TUE JUN 12 2018

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND EASTERN ILLINOIS

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 121145Z - 121415Z

SUMMARY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO WANE, HOWEVER
ADDITIONAL BACKBUILDING, SLOW-MOVING CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS, RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH
FLOODING CONCERNS.

DISCUSSION...LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS 20-30 KT WESTERLY INFLOW
CONTINUING TO SUPPORT 1.9-2 INCH PWS EAST OF A SLOW-MOVING WARM
FRONT PUSHING INTO WESTERN ILLINOIS.  LOW LEVEL INFLOW EXCEEDING
WINDS ALOFT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT SLOW-MOVING, BACKBUILDING
CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INTO EASTERN ILLINOIS THIS
MORNING.  RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS SHOWN A GENERAL WARMING
TREND IN CLOUD TOPS AND RECENT IMAGERY FROM KILX IS SHOWING
RAINFALL RATES BEGINNING TO DECREASE.  HOWEVER THERE REMAINS SOME
INDICATION FOR CELL REGENERATION ACROSS SOME AREAS ALREADY
IMPACTED WITH HEAVY RAINS THIS MORNING, WHICH MAY RESULT IN
FURTHER FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS BEFORE CONVECTION DISSIPATES. 
LATEST HRRR SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES
WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE HIGHLIGHTED AREA THROUGH 14Z.  THIS
INCLUDES AREAS WHERE THE LASTEST 3-HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES
ARE AS LOW AS 0.75 INCH.

PEREIRA

ATTN...WFO...ILX...IND...LSX...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...

LAT...LON   40338901 40058798 39338757 38308793 38298849
            38578878 39148897 40008942