MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0302
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
915 AM EDT FRI JUN 15 2018

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...NORTHERN ILLINOIS

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 151315Z - 151715Z

SUMMARY...CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR CELL REGENERATION AND
TRAINING.  ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN ACCUMULATIONS AND FLASH FLOODING
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

DISCUSSION...LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS 850MB 20-30 KT WESTERLY
INFLOW INTO A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE (PWS 1.5
TO 1.75 INCHES) EXTENDING ACROSS WISCONSIN INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS.
 THIS LOW LEVEL INFLOW WITH WEAK FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
SLOW MOVING BACK-BUILDING CELLS ACROSS THE HIGHLIGHTED AREA.  IN
ADDITION TO AMPLE MOISTURE, MUCAPES ARE AROUND 1000-2000
J/KG...SUPPORTING HEAVY RAINFALL RATES.  RECENT RADAR IMAGERY FROM
KMKX AND KLOT CONTINUE TO SHOW RAINFALL RATES AS HIGH AS 1.5 TO
2.5 INCHES/HR.  OVERALL TREND SEEN IN LATEST GOES-IR IMAGERY DOES
SHOW A GENERAL WARMING TREND, HOWEVER SOME EMBEDDED COOLING TOPS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ONGOING CONVECTION HAS BEEN NOTED.  WHILE THE
HREF PROBABILITIES DO OFFER SOME SUGGESTION FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL HEAVY AMOUNTS THIS MORNING...OVERALL THE HI-RES
GUIDANCE...INCLUDING LATEST RUNS OF THE OPERATIONAL AND
EXPERIMENTAL HRRR HAS NOT SHOWN TO HAVE HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
UNFOLDING HEAVY AMOUNTS OR THE CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THIS
REGION.  FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LIMITED ACROSS THIS
REGION...HOWEVER THE LATEST RAP SUGGESTS CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS...WITH DEEP MOISTURE
REMAINING IN PLACE AND UPWIND PROPAGATION VECTORS SUPPORTING
ADDITIONAL BACK-BUILDING AND LITTLE EASTWARD MOVEMENT WITH THE
ONGOING CONVECTION THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

PEREIRA

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DVN...GRB...ILX...LOT...MKX...

ATTN...RFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   45048967 44468878 43348835 41678833 40918892
            41408938 41978944 43228923 44328965