MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0303
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1224 PM EDT FRI JUN 15 2018

AREAS AFFECTED...EAST-CENTRAL MN/NORTHERN WI...

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 151623Z - 151953Z

SUMMARY...WHILE SOME OF THE MID-MORNING ACTIVITY HAS BEGUN TO
DECAY AS IT APPROACHES THE COOLER WATERS OF LAKE
SUPERIOR...RENEWED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO UNFOLD UPSTREAM ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN WI BACK INTO EAST-CENTRAL MN. EXPECT THIS NEXT BATCH
OF THUNDERSTORMS TO PROMOTE AN ADDITIONAL THREAT FOR FLASH
FLOODING DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

DISCUSSION...16Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED A WELL-DEFINED
BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHEASTERN WI WESTWARD BACK  INTO
EAST-CENTRAL MN. FARTHER UPSTREAM...AN IMPRESSIVE POOL OF HIGH
THETA-E AIR IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS  AND
MIDDLE MS VALLEY. 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM SUCH LOCATIONS SHOW NEARLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM THE SURFACE TO 500-MB
WHICH CONTINUES TO ADVECT THIS WARM/MOIST AIR TOWARD THE MPD AREA.
MEANWHILE...IT APPEARS THE ONGOING CONVECTION IS ROOTED ABOVE THE
SURFACE GIVEN A VAST STABLE LAYER DEPICTED IN THE 12Z MPX
SOUNDING. WITH CONTINUED INFLUXES OF THIS HIGH THETA-E AIR INTO
THE THE UPPER MIDWEST...WOULD EXPECT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO
ERUPT ALONG THIS MENTIONED BOUNDARY. FURTHER...THE GOES-16
MESO-SECTOR VISIBLE SATELLITE DATA HAS SHOWN FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE
UPDRAFTS UNFOLDING ACROSS CENTRAL MN. THIS IS ALSO LIKELY ELEVATED
WITH THE 15Z RAP OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWING A GREAT DEAL OF
LOW-LEVEL INHIBITION. WOULD EXPECT THIS DEVELOPING ACTIVITY TO
MOVE THROUGH AREAS WHICH RECENTLY SAW HEAVY RAINFALL. AS
SUCH...EXPECT FLASH FLOODING TO REMAIN AN ISSUE THROUGH AT LEAST
THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

WHILE THE LATEST CAMS HAVE A SOLID HANDLE ON THE ACTIVITY OVER
NORTHEASTERN WI...THEY DO FAIL TO PRODUCE ANY CONVECTION FARTHER
WEST TOWARD THE WI/MN BORDER. CLOUD TOPS CONTINUE TO COOL OVER
THIS REGION SO WOULD EXPECT THIS TO BE AN AREA OF CONCERN IF THIS
WERE TO PERSIST. GIVEN THESE CELLS HAVE BEGUN TO PRODUCE
LIGHTNING...DO NOT SEE ANY WEAKENING TRENDS YET.

RUBIN-OSTER

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DLH...GRB...MPX...MQT...

ATTN...RFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   47279269 46809116 46509039 45978873 45898830
            45698800 45268793 44958828 45028902 45259000
            45539158 45779285 46149377 46979377