MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0305
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
200 PM EDT SAT JUN 16 2018

AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN NM...WESTERN TX...

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 161800Z - 170000Z

SUMMARY...HIGHLY ANOMALOUS DEEP MOISTURE FOR EFFICIENT RAIN
PRODUCTION WITH SOME N-S EMBEDDED REPEATING MAY SUPPORT LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING RISK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. 

DISCUSSION...GOES-16 WV SUITE DENOTE MID-LEVEL REMNANT CORE OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE BUD HAS LIFTED INTO NORTH CENTRAL NM WITH DRAPED
N-S ORIENTED TROF EXTENDING TOWARD THE THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
WEST TX PANHANDLE.  CIRA LPW SUITE ALSO DENOTE A LOCALIZED 7-5H
MOISTURE SLUG ALONG THIS AXIS ACROSS NORTHERN CHIHUAHUA INTO S
NM/W TX...WHILE REMAINING LAYERS SHOW SSE TO NNW ORIENTED BAND
FROM THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY EAST OF THE BIG BEND TOWARD EASTERN NM.
 AS SUCH TROPICAL SKINNY PROFILES ARE NOTED BY 12Z EPZ SOUNDING
SUPPORTING TPW OVER 1.5" NEARING 1.75" (4-5 STD DEVS FROM NORMAL)
IN SE NM LIKELY TO EXPAND AS THE 7-5H MOISTURE SLUG LIFTS
NORTHEAST.  STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AS ALLOWED TEMPS TO REACH MID
80S WITH TDS IN THE MID TO OCCASIONAL UPPER 60S SUPPORTING SBCAPES
TO 2000 J/KG LIKELY TO INCREASE WITH FURTHER HEATING OVER FAR E NM
INTO TX CAP ROCK/PERMIAN BASIN.  

WITH PASSING OF TROF, LOW LEVEL WINDS HAVE VEERED A BIT TO THE
WEST TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH SSELY 20 KT SFC FLOW
TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM EDDY COUNTY TO GUADALUPE
COUNTY. GIVEN CURRENT INSTABILITY...CELLS ARE STILL A BIT NARROW
BUT CONTINUE TO EXPAND.  DEEP LAYERED SOUTHERLY FLOW EXISTS TO
SUPPORT 20-30KT MEAN NORTHERLY CELL MOTIONS. HOWEVER, WITH
SLIGHTLY STRONGER LL INFLOW, PROPAGATION VECTORS ARE DUE EASTERLY
LIMITING IDEAL TRAINING SETUP BUT WITH SOUTHERLY
BACKBUILDING...DURATION MAY BE LONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LOCALIZED
HIGHER TOTALS BEFORE LINE BECOMES A BIT MORE SOLID N TO S.  

THOUGH UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH BUD IS
EXITING...UPSTREAM LARGER SCALE KICKER SHORTWAVE OVER NW SONORA IN
MEXICO WILL HELP EXPAND UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO AID DIVERGENCE FOR
COMPLEX MAINTENANCE AS WELL AS WELL AS STRENGTHEN LOW LEVEL FLOW
FOR ADDITIONAL BACKBUILDING.  IT IS ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF
THE LINE WITH LOWERED MEAN FLOW/INFLUENCE FROM THE EXITING WAVE
THAT WILL ALSO SUPPORT REDUCING EASTWARD PROPAGATION VECTORS WITH
TIME, LEADING TO INCREASED DURATION AND POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
FLOODING IN SE NM/W TX THOUGH SOUTHERN MOST EXTENT REMAINS
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

THOUGH GROUND CONDITIONS ARE HARD AND FFG VALUES ARE VERY HIGH
(ESPECIALLY IN SE NM)...WITH RATES UP TO 1.75" OR ISOLATED 2"/HR
PARTICULARLY TOWARD 21-22Z TIME FRAME COULD SUPPORT FLASH FLOODING
GIVEN HYDROPHOBIC NATURE OF HARD PAN GROUND CONDITIONS.   STILL
WITH ALL THE METEOROLOGICAL POSITIVES...THE HYDROLOGIC FACTORS
ONLY SUGGESTS FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME.
 
GALLINA

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...EPZ...LUB...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   36130398 35720251 33170289 30750391 30980543
            32730517 33880506 35520475