MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0306
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
659 PM EDT SAT JUN 16 2018

AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN TX...SOUTHEAST NM...

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY

VALID 162300Z - 170400Z

SUMMARY...PERSISTENT AXIS OF TRAINING CONVECTION LIKELY TO POSE
FLASH FLOODING RISK THROUGH EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH 3-5" TOTALS
POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...GOES-16 10.3UM IR CHANNEL CONTINUES TO SHOW A COOLING
LINE OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN CURRENTLY FOCUSED OVER
EXTREME SE NM INTO WINKLER COUNTY TX.  TOPS CYCLING TO -80C
SUGGEST CONTINUED VERY STRONG UPDRAFTS SUPPORTED BY SELY 20KT
INFLOW WITH MID-60S TDS AND MLCAPES NEAR 2000 J/KG.   THE INFLOW
IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY WESTERLY INFLOW THAT IS ATYPICALLY DEEP IN
MOISTURE FROM THE TRAILING REMNANTS OF T.C. BUD WITH TDS IN THE
60S AND EVEN 70S PER AT KATS.  ALOFT PROFILES REMAIN EQUALLY RICH
IN MOISTURE PER RAP SOUNDINGS WITH LITTLE DRY AIR REMAINING WITH
EXCEPTION ACROSS THE BIG BEND REGION INTO THE DAVIS MTNS THAT
FEEDS A WEAK BUT DIMINISHING EML TO THE ONGOING CONVECTION.  IN
FACT RECENT GOES-16 VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS NEW DEVELOPMENT FURTHER
SOUTH TOWARD THE DAVIS RANGE.  THIS IS RELATED TO MOISTENING EML
(WITH REMAINS OF T.C. BUD PACIFIC MOISTURE FINALLY FUNNELING
THROUGH THE MEXICAN PLATEAU...AS WELL AS UPPER LEVEL
DPVA/DIVERGENCE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FAIRLY COMPACT SHORTWAVE
CROSSING NW MEXICO.

WITH THESE LARGER SCALE APPROACHING HEIGHT-FALLS LOW LEVEL INFLOW
FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE MAINTAINED PERHAPS
STRENGTHEN A BIT WITH SOLID FLUX...WHILE THE PLACEMENT/ORIENTATION
OF THE MID-LEVEL 7H TROF BETWEEN THE EXITING OF BUD ACROSS CO/KS
ATTM AND THE APPROACH OF THE MEXICAN SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP THE TROF
AXIS FAIRLY STATIC WITH UPSTREAM REDEVELOPMENT SUPPORTING TRAINING
BUT ALSO HIGHLY EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCTION.  AS SUCH HI-RES
CAMS ARE FAIRLY UNIFIED IN PRODUCING OVER 2-3" OF ADDITIONAL RAIN
FOCUSED ON WARD TO ANDREWS COUNTIES BUT RECENT HRRR RUNS ARE
SUGGESTIVE OF 3-5" TOTALS WHICH IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY MORE
LIKELY AS TIME PASSES.  THE LIMITING FACTOR IS THE VERY HIGH FFG
VALUES IN THE REGION AOA 4-5" IN 3-6HRS RESPECTFULLY.  CONVECTION
FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE DAVIS MTNS AND THE WESTERN BIG BEND IS
LIKELY TO BE LESS FOCUSED WITH REDUCED DURATION BUT STILL 1.5-2.5"
RAINFALL TOTALS WOULD BE CLOSE TO EXCEEDING THE LOWER FFG IN THIS
REGION AS WELL.  GIVEN RECENT TRENDS IN HI-RES CAMS CORRABORATED
BY OBSERVATIONS PER SATELLITE/RADAR ETC...FLASH FLOODING IS
CONSIDERED LIKELY.

GALLINA

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...LUB...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   33890251 33590169 32480175 30520285 29390357
            29630440 30530454 32220383 33120360 33810307