MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0307
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
752 PM EDT SAT JUN 16 2018

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN PLAINS

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 162351Z - 170451Z

SUMMARY...CONVECTION HAS ERUPTED OVER NORTHWEST NEBRASKA AND THE
EXPANDING AXIS OF STORMS IS CURRENTLY LIFTING NORTHWARD. LATEST
RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY NOW ALSO SHOWS NEW DEVELOPMENT FIRING
OVER CENTRAL SD. CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT AND EMERGING CELL TRAINING
POTENTIAL ALONG A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTED FRONT OVER SD
AND MN OFFERS A THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

DISCUSSION...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A WELL-DEFINED AND WAVY
FRONT EXTENDING FROM NORTHWEST NEBRASKA NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SD TO
MN. IMPULSE ENERGY/INSTABILITY AND DEEP MOISTURE POOLING FED BY AN
INTERSECTING LOW LEVEL JET IS LEADING TO ANOMALOUS PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES UPWARD OF 2 INCHES THAT IS AVAILABLE TO FUEL
ACTIVITY. INDUCED WAVES ALONG THE FRONT WILL FOCUS STORMS/INFLOW
WHILE THE PARALLEL ORIENTATION OF THE FLOW ALOFT TO THAT OF THE
FRONT AND CONVECTION FAVORS A THREAT OF CELL TRAINING AND REPEAT
CELLS OVER TIME. 

SCHICHTEL

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...DLH...FGF...FSD...LBF...MPX...UNR...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   47359487 46969423 46259490 45649676 44809799
            44549860 44059968 43020158 42640269 43480226
            44040161 44620068 45529965 46659742 47289607