MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0309
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1211 AM EDT SUN JUN 17 2018

AREAS AFFECTED...WEST TX...SOUTHEAST NM

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY

VALID 170410Z - 170800Z

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS THAT WERE PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL REMAIN QUASI STATIONARY OVER PARTS OF WEST TX AND
SOUTHEAST NM.  THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING WILL LINGER INTO THE
EARLY MORNING BEFORE RAINFALL RATES TAPER OFF.  EVEN THOUGH RATES
MAY BE TAPERING OFF...ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL IMPACT ON-GOING
FLOODING AND RAISE THE POSSIBILITY OF FLASH FLOODING ELSEWHERE.

DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WERE PRODUCING
LOCALIZED RAINFALL RATES OF AN INCH PER HOUR CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHWARD OUT OF MEXICO INTO WEST TX AND FAR SOUTHEAST NM.  GOES
16 SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY SOUTH OF
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WHICH WAS HELPING PRODUCE MORE RAIN. 
SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL DRAW THIS
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IN ROUGHLY THE SAME AREAS WHICH HAVE ALREADY
RECEIVED RAINFALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND EVENING.  THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FLASH FLOODING IN AREAS WHERE FLOODING WAS
OCCURRING AND OPENS THE POSSIBILITY OF FLASH FLOODING ELSEWHERE. 

THE HRRR AND RAP BOTH SHOWED THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO
THE NEARLY QUASI STATIONARY SURFACE TROUGH.

BANN

ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   33990131 33030114 30890242 29280374 29580479
            31590367 33820266