MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0311
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
436 AM EDT SUN JUN 17 2018

AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN UPPER PENINSULA OF MI

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY

VALID 170836Z - 171300Z

SUMMARY...ON-GOING FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 13Z AS A
BROAD AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL PERSISTS. 

DISCUSSION...CONVECTION WITH RAINFALL RATES OF 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES
PER HOUR HAS BEEN PERSISTENT ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
MICHIGAN U.P. WITH A FEW SPOTS ALREADY APPROACHING 5 INCHES OF
RAINFALL.  THIS AREA IS AN EXTENSION OF HEAVY RAINFALL THAT HAD
BEEN PERSISTING OVER NORTHWEST WI...WITH SOME OF THE HIGHEST
OBSERVED RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN AREAS WHERE SURFACE/BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS WERE BEING FORCED TO ASCEND ONCE THEY INTERACT WITH THE
HILLY TERRAIN. 

THE HI RES MODELS DEPICT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER 2 TO 3 INCHES
IN SOME SPOTS WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES MORE COMMON OVER A BROADER AREA. 
THIS WILL EXACERBATE ON GOING FLOODING CONCERNS AND OPENING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FLASH FLOODING ELSEWHERE.  RAINFALL RATES SHOULD BE
TAPERING OFF BY 13Z.

BANN

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MQT...

ATTN...RFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   47578794 47528703 47298596 46948545 46708559
            46378607 46148716 46068830 46208915 46478938
            46789045 46919095 47309010 47278920 47478848