MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0315
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
631 PM EDT SUN JUN 17 2018

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN WI...UPPER PENINSULA OF MI

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY

VALID 172330Z - 180500Z

SUMMARY...CONVECTIVE COMPLEX BEGINNING TO ORIENT PARALLEL TO MEAN
FLOW WITH CELL MERGERS FROM THE SOUTHEAST OVER SATURATED SOILS
CONTINUE TO POSE LIKELY FLASH FLOODING RISK THOUGH 04Z.

DISCUSSION...GOES-16 AND RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A MATURE LINEAR
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVING THROUGH N WI.  DOWNSTREAM ADDITIONAL
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG LAKE BREEZE IN CENTRAL U.P. AS WELL A
NEW WARM SECTOR CONVECTION MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS N WI WILL LEAD
TO SIGNIFICANT CELL MERGERS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  
ADDITIONALLY...THE LINEAR COMPLEX DUE TO INCREASED CELL
MOTIONS/STRONGER CLOUD BEARING FLOW IS TILTING THE LINE MORE WEST
TO EAST NEAR THE WI/U.P. BOARDER WHICH COULD LEAD TO INCREASED
TRAINING IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. 

OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR ESTIMATES SUPPORT RAIN RATES OF 1.75-2"/HR
AND WITH LOCAL MERGERS, A FEW SPOTS UP TO 2.5" ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.  GIVEN TPWS AOA 2" AND SBCAPES FROM 2000-3000
J/KG,  3 HOUR TOTALS OF 2-4" ARE LIKELY WITH MAYBE A FEW ISOLATED
AREAS UP TO 5" THROUGH 04Z.   WHILE THE COMPLEX IS MOVING THROUGH
THE MOST COMPROMISED SOIL CONDITIONS NOW (FFG <1"),  SOILS ARE
SATURATED ALONG THE MENOMINEE RIVER VALLEY ESPECIALLY BETWEEN
DICKINSON/MENOMINEE AND W DELTA COUNTIES AND 3HR FFG OF 1.5-2" ARE
LIKELY TO BE EXCEEDED.  AS SUCH FLASH FLOODING IS CONSIDERED
LIKELY.

GALLINA

ATTN...WFO...DLH...GRB...MPX...MQT...

ATTN...RFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   47138852 46878771 46658713 46588675 46688592
            46648590 46378594 45918599 45338675 44678729
            44368744 44208754 44258823 44458887 45018920
            45268947 45418987 45499026 45499102 45659171
            45789177 45879166 46209114 46629024 46978902