MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0350
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
122 AM EDT SUN JUN 24 2018

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/EASTERN OK

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 240520Z - 240920Z

SUMMARY...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING SEVERAL
MERGING CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS MAY RESULT IN SOME FLASH FLOODING
CONCERNS THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY IS SHOWING AN UPTICK IN
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CENTRAL OK TO THE NORTH OF A WEAK
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT AS WARM ADVECTION IS INCREASING IN RESPONSE
TO A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET. SPEED CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AND A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS FURTHER
ENHANCING THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION THAT IS UNDER WAY AT THIS
TIME.

MEANWHILE...A STRONG FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS IS SEEN DROPPING
RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST KS WHICH WILL BE MOVING DOWN
ACROSS NORTHERN OK WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS MCS WILL
EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH THE CELLS OVER CENTRAL OK...AND THE
RESULTING MERGERS WILL LIKELY FACILITATE A SOMEWHAT LARGER SCALE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THAT WILL MAKE IT TOWARD EASTERN OK LATER IN
THE NIGHT.

PWATS ACROSS THE REGION ARE QUITE HIGH WITH VALUES NEAR OR ABOVE
1.75 INCHES. THIS COUPLED WITH VERY COLD CONVECTIVE TOPS AS SEEN
IN THE LATEST GOES-16 CLEAN IR IMAGERY WHICH INCLUDES A FEW
DISTINCT OVERSHOOTING TOPS...SHOULD FOSTER ENHANCED RAINFALL RATES
THAT MAY EXCEED 2.5 INCHES/HR.

THE LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE FAVORS AS MUCH AS 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN
LOCALLY AND ESPECIALLY WITH THE SLOW-MOVING AND MERGING CLUSTERS
OF CONVECTION SEEN OVER CENTRAL OK. SOME FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE GIVEN THESE TOTALS.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...

LAT...LON   36989745 36799631 36339517 35729455 35089473
            34689539 34909622 35069731 35269774 35959859
            36439883 36869855