MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0351
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
432 AM EDT SUN JUN 24 2018

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHWEST KS

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 240830Z - 241200Z

SUMMARY...A ROUND OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
ARRIVE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. SOME FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...GOES-16 CLEAN IR SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING COOLING
CLOUD TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH AN ORGANIZING MCS OVER FAR EASTERN CO.
THIS ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO FAVORABLE LEFT-EXIT
REGION JET DYNAMICS ROUNDING THE BASE OF AN UPPER LOW THAT IS
CROSSING CENTRAL WY AT THIS TIME. THE FORCING ALOFT IS INTERACTING
WITH AT LEAST MODEST AXIS OF SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND AS
MUCH AS 1000 TO 2000 J/KG OF MUCAPE WHICH IS NOSED UP ALONG THE
CO/KS BORDER.

OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...THE MCS WILL ADVANCE GENERALLY
EAST-SOUTHEAST AND SHOULD MOVE OVER NORTHWEST KS AND IMPACT SOME
AREAS THAT SAW HEAVY RAIN AND SOME FLASH FLOODING LAST EVENING.
THE PWATS OVER THE REGION ARE 1.2 TO 1.3 INCHES...BUT WITH
ADDITIONAL COOLING CONVECTIVE TOPS...THE RAINFALL RATES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE QUITE HEAVY AND LIKELY REACHING OR PERHAPS
EXCEEDING 1.5 INCHES/HR. THOSE RATES WOULD LOCALLY EXCEED 1-HOUR
FFG VALUES.

THE LATEST HRRRX GUIDANCE SEEMS TO HAVE A REASONABLE HANDLE ON
THIS MCS AND IT SUPPORTS AS MUCH AS 2 TO 3 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
RAIN GOING THROUGH 12Z. WILL AGAIN BE CONCERNED FOR SOME FLASH
FLOODING MAINLY OVER AREAS THAT HAVE RELATIVELY WET ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GID...GLD...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   40020122 39769986 39129923 38449947 38300050
            38460126 38670179 39000211 39550213 39890195