MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0352
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
521 AM EDT SUN JUN 24 2018

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/EASTERN OK...FAR SOUTHEAST KS....FAR
SOUTHWEST MO...WEST-CENTRAL/NORTHWEST AR

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 240920Z - 241345Z

SUMMARY...VERY HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FOCUS SOME
FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL GOING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL ORGANIZED AND
SEVERE MCS CONTINUING TO ADVANCE ACROSS AREAS OF FAR SOUTHERN KS
AND DOWN THROUGH NORTH-CENTRAL OK. MEANWHILE...AHEAD OF THIS HAS
BEEN A HIGHLY PERSISTENT CLUSTER OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
NOW OVER AREAS OF EASTERN OK. THE ACTIVITY IN GENERAL IS ALL BEING
HIGHLY SUSTAINED BY A ROBUST 40+KT LOW LEVEL JET OUT OF THE SOUTH
WHICH IS ENHANCING THE WARM ADVECTION AND INSTABILITY TRANSPORT
PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION.

PWATS REMAIN HIGH WITH VALUES OVER 1.75 INCHES AND COUPLED WITH
VERY STRONG UPDRAFTS/OVERSHOOTING TOPS CONTINUES TO FAVOR
EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES THAT ARE LIKELY EXCEEDING 2.5
INCHES/HR WITHIN THE STRONGER CONVECTIVE CORES.

THE LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO BEGIN VEERING OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AND SHOULD ALSO WEAKEN AFTER 12Z WHICH WILL ALLOW THE
CONVECTIVE MASS TO BEGIN TO WANE. HOWEVER...THE MOST RECENT
HRRR/HRRRX STILL SUPPORTS AS MUCH AS 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAINFALL
POTENTIAL...WITH THE MAIN THREAT OVER AREAS OF EASTERN AND
NORTHEAST OK...BUT THERE WILL BE SOME HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WITH
THE MCS ALSO OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST KS...NORTHWEST AR AND PERHAPS
EDGING INTO FAR SOUTHWEST MO BEFORE THE CONVECTION WEAKENS BY
MID-MORNING.

SOME FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
RATES AND STORM TOTAL POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...ICT...LZK...OUN...SGF...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...

LAT...LON   37629590 37189407 36459317 35679308 34869369
            34559429 34499504 34579589 34879669 35239734
            35509758 35819748 36089709 36599701 37239734
            37509701