MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0355
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
932 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2018

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN KS INTO OK AND THE TX PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 250130Z - 250730Z

SUMMARY...FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS SATURATED SOILS OF THE NORTHEASTERN TEXAS AND
EASTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
LOCALIZED TOTALS OF 2-4 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...01Z RADAR SHOWED A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS MOVING
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS...WITH STRONG OUTFLOW
ARCING SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE COLORADO/NEW MEXICO BORDER. THE 00Z
RAOB FROM AMA SHOWED STEEP 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES OF 9 C/KM AND
3900 J/KG MUCAPE AMID A LOW LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION AT 700 MB WITH
17C NOTED. AS THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NEAR THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE
CONTINUES TO THE SOUTH...ENOUGH LIFT IS EXPECTED TO BE PROVIDED TO
OVERCOME THE CAPPING INVERSION NOTED TO THE SOUTH...ALONG WITH AN
INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET OVER WEST TEXAS. RAP FORECASTS
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF 45-55 KT OF 850 MB
FLOW OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE MEETING UP WITH THE ADVANCING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE NORTH ALLOWING FOR STRONG LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND LIKELY SUBSEQUENT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BENEATH
INCREASING DIVERGENT/DIFFLUENT FLOW AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS.

RECENT RAINFALL OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...INCLUDING A STRIPE OF
2-4 INCHES OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS IN WESTERN/CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA...HAS LOWERED FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE TO 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES
IN 3 HOURS. WHILE CONVECTION SHOULD BE LARGELY PROGRESSIVE OFF TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST...RAP FORECASTS SHOW GROWING ALIGNMENT OF
850-300 MB MEAN FLOW AND 850 MB WINDS ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SETTING UP BY ABOUT 06Z WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR
TRAINING. RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR AND EXPERIMENTAL NSSL NEWS-E
GUIDANCE HAVE SUGGESTED THE POTENTIAL FOR 2-4 INCHES FROM THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH 07Z. GIVEN THE
WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE.

OTTO

ATTN...WFO...AMA...DDC...ICT...OUN...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...

LAT...LON   37589998 37349835 36859732 36089702 35469727
            35099819 34909936 35110135 35890212 36530208
            37230158